What We Learned from NFL Week 11 (Sports Betting)
Week 11 of the NFL season had a number of surprises for us – including a morning wave of Sunday games filled with blowouts. Here’s a look at the five main things we learned from this week’s action with a focus on the betting spin of it.
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49ers’ Running Game Has Gone Quiet
The 49ers have gone from being one of the best teams to bet on this season to a team you want to think twice about before laying a huge number. Sure, they covered (for some people) with a miracle, game-ending touchdown yesterday, but in reality, they were nowhere near covering the two touchdowns they needed for some bettors on Sunday.
The main issue for the 49ers is that their rushing offense has gone cold. A unit that was averaging 181.1 rushing yards per game (second-best in the NFL) has now slipped to just 74.0 rushing yards per game over their last three. In that span, they have two narrow wins over the Arizona Cardinals and a loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
They have some tough opponents coming up with the Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, and New Orleans Saints, and if they can’t find a way to run the ball with more success, they’re probably going to lose multiple games or at least struggle to cover.
Steelers’ Offense Is A Mess
Lost in the drama of the Myles Garrett helmet-swinging incident from Thursday night was the fact that Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph is absolutely terrible. Those thinking he would eventually be the successor to Ben Roethlisberger need to put that to bed because it’s not happening. He has yet to throw for more than 251 passing yards in a game, he’s thrown a pick in five of his eight starts, and his 32.2 quarterback rating ranks 31st in the NFL.
The Steelers managed to win four in a row not because of him but on the strength of the turnovers forced. They forced a whopping 14 turnovers in those three games (over three per game), and that’s what helped them earn those wins. Opponents know this now as it’s quite easy to beat the Steelers, don’t turn it over – even if that means punting a lot – and you’ll eventually get enough done to win.
I’d bet against this team for the time being. Rudolph can’t be trusted – even against the Cincinnati Bengals next week.
Clock Has Struck Midnight On Kyle Allen
One of the best Cinderella stories of the season has turned back into a pumpkin. Now we’re starting to see why he went undrafted in the 2018 NFL Draft and why the Panthers shouldn’t be so quick to cut ties with Cam Newton.
Allen started the year off with four straight wins, tossing seven touchdowns and no interceptions in that span. The script has flipped as the team has now lost three of four, and Allen has been a big reason for it. He’s thrown nine interceptions and lost a fumble in those four games. His completion percentage has also gone into the toilet as he’s been at 62% or lower in three of the last four games; he was at above that mark in three of his first four starts this season.
Keep in mind that part of it is the competition. The Panthers have played the Packers and San Francisco 49ers among their last four games – two of which were on the road. The only team with a winning record the Panthers had to face in Allen’s first four starts was Houston.
I’d back off for now as the Panthers next play the New Orleans Saints and still have to face the Seattle Seahawks, Indianapolis Colts, and the Saints again to end the year. It doesn’t look like this team is coming in for a smooth landing.
Dwayne Haskins Has Shown Nothing
I’m always one to give the new players the benefit of the doubt, but I have to be honest here, Redskins rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins looks completely lost out there. Whereas guys like Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray have struggled at times, both have made some nice throws and completed epic drives where you say to yourself “this guy has it†or at least the potential to have it. With Haskins, we’ve seen none of that. While it’s early, it looks like he’s could be a bust.
One of the concerns here is that Haskins has faced a couple of bad defenses, like the Giants and the Jets, and still hasn’t been able to show anything. On Sunday, against the Jets, he was 19-of-35 for 214 yards, two touchdowns, and a pick. Now take into account that the two touchdowns and the bulk of those yards came during garbage time when the Jets were up 34-3, and that paints a very different story. He had just 96 passing yards in the entire game with an interception and two fumbles (he got them back) before those two garbage-time drives.
Sure, he’s not getting much help from the offensive line or the receivers. Well, Jones and Murray have gone through that too – even Gardner Minshew II as well – and they’ve all flashed at times. We haven’t seen that from Haskins. I’d bet against this team every week until further notice. They’re the worst in the NFL with Haskins under center.
Jacksonville Jaguars Are Tapping Out
Be very careful betting on the Jaguars going forward, as it looks like this team has tapped out for the season. The Jags have now lost back-to-back divisional games by a combined score of 59-16. They were completely whipped on the ground yesterday as they allowed 264 rushing yards to the Indianapolis Colts while collecting just 29 rushing yards themselves. And this is a Colts team that lost to the Miami Dolphins the week prior.
It’s become clear that the key to the Jaguars’ success is the running game, as their quarterbacks and receivers just can’t carry the load. Leonard Fournette averages 124.5 rushing yards per game in the team’s wins and just 59.3 in the losses.
The concern here is that this can’t be fixed midseason. On top of that, it looks like this franchise – or the coaching staff, at least – is in for a housecleaning. With efforts like the last two weeks, it looks like this team has already quit. That means that unless I see the Jaguars playing an opponent with a pathetic run defense, I won’t even consider backing them.
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.