What We Learned from NFL: Week 17 (Sports Betting)
The 2019 NFL regular season came to an end on Sunday. While most teams are already shifting their focus to the offseason, 12 teams will now vie for the chance to win the Super Bowl. Let’s take a closer look at what we learned from this past week as we enter the playoffs:
Playoff Pick’em: Play free for autographed prizes & FantasyPros subscriptions >>
Packers Have Problems
I’ve been highlighting this for a few weeks now but it’s worth reiterating as we enter the postseason: the Packers have problems. On offense, this is a team that can’t seem to find consistency, as evidenced in their Week 17 near-loss to the hapless Detroit Lions. They had just three points in the first half and could barely get anything going. They caught fire late in the game just in time to tie it and while overtime was a struggle for them too, they managed to get the ball back with just over a minute to go and got into field goal range.
Sure, the Packers finished the year 13-3 and they do something well, like pressure the quarterback. However, their run defense continues to be a complete mess as they somehow allowed the Lions to run for 171 yards on Sunday even though it was David Blough under center and there was minimal threat of the pass. I would not be betting this team for any NFC or Super Bowl futures right now.
Fractures In The Patriots Dynasty
We’ve whispers all season long about this being Tom Brady’s final season in New England and if things keep going this way, don’t be surprised if they break up the band. That might mean Brady leaving, Josh McDaniels leaving and who knows what will happen with Bill Belichick.
Although that’s speculation, what we do know is that the product on the field has been very flawed. The Pats were a 17-point favorite at home in Week 17 and needed a win to secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC. In previous years, this would have been a gimme. Instead, the Patriots completely flopped, lost the game and lost the much-needed bye.
Brady has just one 300-yard passing game over his last 10 contests and the team enters the playoffs just 4-4 in their last eight games. As for the once-vaunted defense, they couldn’t get stops against Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins, who finished the year with just five wins. No matter how “surprising†or “competitive†the Dolphins are, this can’t happen if you’re at home and supposedly a Super Bowl contender.
The Patriots defense finished the year giving up 21.6 points per game over their final five contests, which isn’t bad but it’s a far cry from the 48 points in total they gave up over their first seven games. As for the offense, they’re 15th in total offense and 18th in rushing offense. This team is not dead in the water by any stretch but there are big chinks in the armor. They’re a very beatable team these days.
Eagles Are Too Banged Up To Back
At this point, you have to back away from betting the Eagles in any way, shape or form. It’s great that they won their final four games to make the playoffs but they are so banged up that it’s hard to trust them going forward.
The Eagles were without DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor, Miles Sanders, Corey Clement, Darren Sproles, Lane Johnson, Brandon Brooks, Zach Ertz, Jalen Mills, Ronald Darby, and Kamu Grugier-Hill. Sanders and Brooks played but couldn’t finish the game. Brooks is out this week and Sanders could be too. It’s just too much for any team to overcome.
Keep in mind that they’ll be hosting the Seattle Seahawks this week, who were 7-1 on the road this season.
Ravens Are The Team To Beat
I know, I know, this isn’t exactly breaking news. However, if we’re looking at Super Bowl bets right now, I’d only consider betting either the Kansas City Chiefs or the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens are my top choice simply because they’ve forgotten how to lose. Even with backup Robert Griffin III under center on Sunday along with a cast of backups, they still easily handled the Pittsburgh Steelers, who needed to win.
The Ravens are going to get a breather this week, and then they should have a relatively easy playoff game either against the Tennessee Titans, Buffalo Bills, or Houston Texans. Meanwhile, the Chiefs will have to go toe-to-toe with the Patriots if the Pats beat the Titans this Saturday. In the AFC Championship Game, the Ravens will be at home and although it doesn’t get much credit, The Bank has always been a strong home-field advantage in the John Harbaugh era.
In general, seeing the Ravens roll the Steelers on Sunday shows just how cohesive this team is right now. I don’t see anyone in the AFC stopping them, and I’m betting them to square off with the New Orleans Saints in the Super Bowl.
Brissett Is A Bust
Although we’re mostly focusing on playoff teams in this article, it’s worth noting that the Indianapolis Colts will likely have to look for a new franchise quarterback this offseason. Jacoby Brissett has proven to be quite the bust.
Brissett started the year well with 14 touchdowns and three picks in his first six games, but he threw just four more touchdowns the rest of the way. His passing numbers were quite ugly down the stretch as he had 165 yards passing or less in five of his final seven starts. That’s simply not good enough in this league.
His 50.5 QBR ranked him 21st in the league. If the Colts stick with him next year, I’ll be betting under on their regular-season win total.
Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.