What We Learned from NFL Week 6 (Sports Betting)
It’s hard to believe that the Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs all started 3-0 and are a combined 0-9 since. It was a particularly embarrassing Sunday for these three teams as they all lost as mid-to-sizable favorites. We’ll start with two of these teams as they’re part of our What We Learned column for this week:
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The Rams Offense Has Fallen Apart
A lot of people are wondering, what’s wrong with the Los Angeles Rams? They scored just seven points on Sunday in a game where Jared Goff had just 70 passing yards. There are a few problems and I’m not going to pin it all on Goff but he’s been struggling. While he’s only been sacked 13 times, he’s among the most pressured quarterbacks in the NFL, so you have to take that into account. Even so, he’s thrown just 16 touchdowns and 17 interceptions over his last 14 games.
More is asked of him this year than ever before as the Rams have no running game to speak of. They had 281 rushing yards in the first two weeks and have 352 in the four games since. Todd Gurley is no longer an explosive weapon and think about the coaches that this team has lost. Zac Taylor is now in Cincinnati and Matt LaFleur is now in Green Bay. Goff deserves much of the blame but you also have to take into account that the situation around him is not the same.
I expect the Rams to turn this around as they play at Atlanta, versus Cincinnati, and at Pittsburgh in the next three weeks. We’ll get good value with them on those betting lines and they should be 6-3 after that. However, there are many flaws on this team and they’ll get exposed against elite teams if they make the playoffs.
Mahomes’ Injury is Significant
I heard a lot of bettors writing off the Chiefs loss to Indianapolis as a one-off and the same was said about Patrick Mahomes’ struggles. However, you have to take a look at the numbers because he’s not the same MVP-caliber player right now.
Before the injury, Mahomes was completing 69.1% of his passes at 12.3 yards per attempt with five touchdowns, no picks, and a 141.1 quarterback rating.
Since the injury, Mahomes is completing only 57.1% of his passes with a 6.0 yards per attempt average with two touchdowns, one pick, and an 80.0 quarterback rating.
This Chiefs offense – and this team – go as Mahomes goes and right now, he’s not taken them really far. He’s now on a short week against the Denver Broncos, which probably isn’t enough time for him to recover. He’s not magical right now and when you consider the rest of the team – a putrid defense that’s allowing 161.8 rushing yards per week (30th) and a rushing offense that’s only running for 82.7 yards per game (24th) – you have to avoid betting on the Chiefs for now.
The Browns are Broken
Sunday was the cut-off for me in terms of giving the Cleveland Browns a chance to turn around their season. The Seattle Seahawks are a formidable opponent but they’re not a great road team. The Browns really needed the win to show that this team can really salvage this season. At this point, this is nothing more than a .500 team in my eyes.
It’s time to realize that Baker Mayfield just isn’t very good right now. He had three interceptions on Sunday and now has just five touchdowns and 11 interceptions. No player in the league has more turnovers since the start of 2018. And it’s time to stop making excuses for him. He has two of the best receivers in the game and one of the best running backs. Part of it is the coaching staff, part of it is the offensive line and part of it is the competition. Even so, if Mayfield is truly to be an elite franchise quarterback, he’s got to elevate his team past these things – especially at home. How is it possible that Beckham Jr. played better with Eli Manning than he’s playing with Mayfield?
The Browns’ next three games are at New England, at Denver, and home vs. Buffalo. They have an easy schedule down the stretch where I think they’ll get hot but for now, this will get worse before they get better.
The Saints are the Top Team in the NFC
One of the things that gets lost with the Saints is just how good this defense has become. In their Week 1 near-loss to the Houston Texans, everyone figured the Saints offense would have to carry this team. Over the last four games, it’s been the defense that’s stepped it up to the point where the offense really doesn’t have to do much to get the win. The Saints allowed 27.3 points per game over their first three contests; they’ve cut that down to 13.3 over their last three.
If they can keep this up when Drew Brees is back, this will be the team to beat in the NFC.
The Chargers are Among the Worst Teams in the NFL
It’s odd to say this about a team that has Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, and Joey Bosa, but the bottom line is the Chargers are one of the worst teams in the NFL. You might say a lot of that is because of injuries but this team wasn’t very good when they were healthy.
Remember, the Chargers won their opener against the Indianapolis Colts in overtime. That was a game where Adam Vinatieri missed two field goals and an extra point. If he hits those, the Chargers are probably a one-win team with that lone win coming against the Miami Dolphins.
You have to take that into account when you’re betting Charger’s spreads. If they were a one-win team, would you have laid a touchdown with them in either of the last two weeks? That’s where those lines were. This is a bad team, so don’t hop on board because of a couple of talented players.
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.