What We Learned from NFL Week 9 (Sports Betting)

Week 9 of the NFL season was filled with surprises. The Miami Dolphins finally won, the New England Patriots finally lost, the Cleveland Browns couldn’t beat the Brandon Allen-led Denver Broncos, and the Green Bay Packers got smoked by the Los Angeles Chargers. We’ll start with the Packers’ big loss in our weekly wrap-up of the things we learned from the NFL.

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Packers’ Run Defense Is A Problem

If you’re a Green Bay Packers fan, at what point do you start to get worried about the run defense? For me, I’m out on all Green Bay futures (to win the Super Bowl or NFC) because they can’t stop anyone on the ground.

Here are their rushing yards allowed in each of their last eight games.

• 159
• 88
• 155
• 56
• 122
• 176
• 149
• 198

The 88 was the Chiefs when Matt Moore started and the 56 was the Detroit Lions, one of the weaker running teams in the NFL. The Chargers came into the week averaging 79.4 rushing yards per game, but they racked up 159 against Green Bay. Over their last eight contests, the Packers are giving up 137.9 rushing yards per outing.

They’ll get by in the regular season, but you have to be wary when they play anyone who can run the ball well. That will be doubly important in the playoffs as someone will run it down their throats and usher them out of the postseason.

Patriots Are Beatable

So maybe the New England Patriots aren’t the impenetrable juggernaut we thought them to be?

The Pats’ defense was giving up about a touchdown per game this season before the Baltimore Ravens completely shredded them, scoring a touchdown on their opening drive and finishing with 37 points on the night. What’s even more surprising is had the Ravens not gifted the Patriots points off of turnovers – especially when they were up 17-0 and in complete control – we could have seen a blowout.

All this tells us is that we’ve still got a long way to go this season. New England’s defense isn’t the suffocating, record-setting unit we thought they were, this team can make mistakes, and going up against elite teams in the playoffs – like New Orleans, Kansas City, or Baltimore – they could lose.

Am I worried about the Patriots? Absolutely not. They’ll continue to get better – especially as N’Keal Harry and Mohammed Sanu get more comfortable in this offense. All we learned is they’re vulnerable like everyone else, and they’re not head-and-shoulders above the competition as we had originally perceived.

Dolphins Continue To Fight

The Dolphins have been a laughing stock this season, but you have to give them credit, they are fighting. On Sunday, they finally earned their first win of the season as they defeated the New York Jets 26-18. We’ve seen a turning point with the Dolphins, and you can see that in their spreads as they’re getting smaller and smaller. They could have beaten the Washington Redskins (failed two-point conversion at the end of the game), they were up double-digits on the Buffalo Bills in the second half, and they led the Pittsburgh Steelers 14-0 before the wheels came off. The fact that they’ve had leads and been in control – at times – shows that they are competing. We’ll probably see teams quit down the stretch of the season, but this team does not appear to be one of them.

They’ve turned a corner and you have to consider the value with them on the betting lines each week as many just assume this team is mailing it in.

Bears Are Finished

Stick a fork in the Chicago Bears, they’re done. On Sunday, they embarrassed themselves, finishing the first half with a total of nine yards and just one passing yard. Mitchell Trubisky has lost all confidence, and he’s not even a serviceable backup at this point. He won’t even risk downfield throws and has been trigger-shy on a number of basic passes. The team can’t run the ball, either, as they have 644 rushing yards through eight games. This is a team that averaged 121.7 per game last season.

The entire team is weighed down by the quarterback play, and it’s become humiliating. They had just 10 first downs on Sunday and are averaging 16.8 during their four-game losing streak. Remove the team’s lucky win at Denver in Week 2, and we’re looking at a two-win team. With games remaining against the Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, and Dallas Cowboys, you can stick a fork in Chicago. They’re done.

Bucs Have One Of The Worst Defenses Of All-Time

Six of the Bucs’ eight games this season have gone over the number, and you might want to continue hitting the over. The reason? Their defense is horrendous.

Through eight games this year, the Bucs have allowed 31 or more points six times. That ties an NFL record. In a passing-oriented league, no team has allowed more than the 2,348 passing yards the Bucs have coughed up. The team has just 19 sacks, but as you might recall, Shaq Barrett has 10 of them and eight of those were in the first three weeks of the season. The team has just 11 sacks in their last five games.

And, of course, Tampa Bay’s offense does their part too, averaging 28.8 points per game. Stick with the overs even as we start to see higher numbers for the Bucs in coming weeks.

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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.