Which NCAA No. 1 Seed Will Be Eliminated First? (March Madness)

Come March Madness, it’s good to be a No. 1 seed. Stating the obvious, the top seeds hold a strong advantage over the rest of the field. In fact, since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, No. 1 seeds have played 569 games. They have won 454 of those, for a winning percentage of 79.8. Nine of the last 12 National Champions have been No. 1 seeds.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that it’s always a cake walk for the top teams. No. 1 seeds can be sent packing early, and that was certainly on display during the 2018 tournament when UMBC became the first No. 16 seed to defeat a No. 1 seed (by 20 points, no less!).

Since No. 1 seeds can really make or break brackets, we’ve asked our experts which top team will be eliminated first.

Which No. 1 seed will be eliminated from the tournament first?

North Carolina: Midwest Region
“It isn’t as though UNC is weak, nor do I expect them to go out early, but the other three No. 1 seeds are absolute powerhouses. I’ve got Auburn taking down North Carolina in the Sweet 16. Auburn has 19 wins against Top-100 programs including a 20-point demolition of No. 2 seed Tennessee last weekend. They played Duke tight on a neutral court and can beat anyone any night because of their incredible three-point shooting. Not only that, but no one forced as many turnovers this year as Auburn, who generated over 20 a game! Auburn very easily could have been a No. 3 seed so I think UNC, the weakest No. 1, will have their hands full.”
– Bobby Sylvester (@bobbyfantasypro)

Gonzaga: West Region
“It’s not that I think Gonzaga is the worst of the No. 1 seeds, only that it probably has the toughest draw. It could get Syracuse in the second round, which is always a pain, especially since the Zags barely beat Washington earlier this season (a team that runs the Syracuse zone). Florida State may also end up being more difficult than whoever it plays in the Elite Eight, due to its depth and versatility. Gonzaga has tons of talent, but the first few rounds could be more difficult than the other No. 1 seeds.”
– Adam Zdroik (@RotoZdroik)

Duke: East Region
“Okay, hear me out. Duke is the odds-on favorite to win the entire tournament since Zion Williamson returned from injury. He is a freak of nature, no doubt. But this Duke team is not invincible like they are portrayed to be. They dominate in the paint offensively, no doubt, ranking fourth nationally in two-point % and sixth nationally in offensive rebounds per game. But they rank 338th in three-point % per game, which wouldn’t be as worrisome if they didn’t attempt over 24 three-point attempts per game. In the games where Duke has faltered, they became too reliant on the long-ball. If this young roster falls behind early, I am worried that the Blue Devils might start chucking from deep which is obviously not a recipe for success for them. Duke will coast to the Final Four if they don’t become too reliant on the outside shot, but they are beatable if they’re forcing shots from deep. Their path is also relatively difficult compared to the other No. 1 seeds. In the Sweet 16, they could potentially face a Virginia Tech team that has already beaten them once this year and are now at full strength with the return of Justin Robinson. And then they could face either a red-hot Michigan State team (ranked fourth in KenPom, right behind Duke) in the Elite Eight or an LSU team that rebounds the hell out of the ball on the offensive end, which would directly exploit Duke’s 217th ranked defensive rebounding %. It’s not outside of the realm of possibility that Duke loses before the Final Four.”
– Shane Davies (@sbdavies7)