Will Aaron Rodgers Go Over/Under 3850.5 Passing Yards? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)
One of the hottest conversations of the offseason most certainly centered around the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers post-NFL Draft night. The Packers drafted their quarterback of the future in Jordan Love, giving everyone Brett Favre-Aaron Rodgers vibes from the past.
The Packers are recovering from an NFC Championship loss to the 49ers last season, and return much of their core. DraftKings Sportsbook sets Rodgers at 3,850.5 passing yards and -110 odds, a total he’s surpassed in three of his last four seasons.
Let’s take a look at Rodgers 2020 season and if he has enough weapons around him to hit the over.
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The Pack is Back for Redemption in 2020
At 36-years-old, Rodgers still has plenty left in the tank and has posted three 4,000-yard seasons in his last four years and has accomplished that feat in eight of 14 seasons as the starter. He’s gone over 3,850 yards in nine of those seasons, and in two of the three years he did not, he missed at least seven games.
Green Bay decided to draft running back, selecting A.J. Dillon and tight end Josiah Degurara rather than taking a wide receiver in arguably one of the deepest receiving classes in the last decade. That irked Packers fans and widened some eyes around the league in whether or not they believe Rodgers will finish his career in Green Bay.
That might be a bit of an overreaction, but if Tom Brady can leave the Patriots, it’s not so far-fetched. Green Bay returns Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling from last season’s receiving core and also signed Devin Funchess from the Colts. Jace Sternberger is the expected starting tight end, and that’s going to be the weakest point of the offense, even though Rodgers is well-known for disregarding that position in the passing game.
The Packers offensive line allowed a 22nd-ranked pressure rate, but their average time to allow a pressure was 2.62 seconds (best in the NFL) per Pro Football Focus. PFF ranked the Packers offensive line as the sixth-best overall unit in 2019 and signed OT Rick Wagner from the Lions to start the opposite of David Bakhtiari.
Their rushing offense improved by drafting Dillon, giving the Packers three legitimate running backs with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Jones tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns last season with Derrick Henry (16), and that total was second in franchise history behind Jim Taylor’s 1962 record of 19 rushing scores.
Adams is Rodgers No. 1 priority in that offense, and last season, he missed four games but still led the team in receptions (83), targets (127), receiving yards (997), and tied with Williams in receiving touchdowns (5). Adams has seen 117-plus receptions in four-straight seasons, and Funchess is an underrated No. 2 or 3 for this offense.
In four seasons with Carolina, he scored at least four touchdowns and was targeted 60 times in three of four years. He had a Clavicle fracture last season that forced him to opt for surgery and miss 15 games of his lone season with the Colts. Rodger’s offense did improve slightly, no matter the fact they passed on drafting a wide receiver with any of their first three selections.
2020 Schedule
In 2020, Green Bay will face only three teams ranked inside the top 10 in passing yards allowed last season, and four games total considering the two-division matches versus Chicago. Green Bay’s schedule from Week 14 on is lovely. They will face the Lions (31st), Panthers (23rd), Titans (21st), and Bears (8th) to finish off the season.
The first seven weeks aren’t too bad either with dates versus Detroit, Atlanta (20th), and Houston (28th) as the worst secondaries they’ll see, plus at Minnesota, at New Orleans, and versus Tampa Bay. Three of their first six games will be in a dome, and seven of the 16 total games will be against teams ranked 20th or worse from a season ago.
| Week / Opponent | Passing Yards Allowed |
| Weeks 1, 8 vs Vikings | 341.6 (14th) |
| Weeks 2, 14 vs Lions | 400.4 (31st) |
| Week 3 at Saints | 333.1 (11th) |
| Week 4 vs Falcons | 355.8 (20th) |
| Week 6 at Buccaneers | 343.9 (15th) |
| Week 7 at Texans | 388.3 (28th) |
| Week 9 at 49ers | 281.8 (2nd) |
| Week 10 vs Jaguars | 375.4 (24th) |
| Week 11 at Colts | 346.8 (16th) |
| Weeks 12, 17 vs Bears | 324.1 (8th) |
| Week 13 vs Eagles | 331.7 (10th) |
| Week 15 vs Panthers | 374.5 (23rd) |
| Week 16 vs Titans | 359.5 (21st) |
In Rodgers 28 career games in a dome, he is 14-14 and averaging 279.5 passing yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game. Outdoors, his yardage declines to 256.4 passing yards but remains at 2.0 touchdowns per game per Pro-Football-Reference. He also has a ridiculous record of 98-48 (61.6%) outdoors, something to keep in mind for Packers’ bettors during the season.
Taking his career averages outdoor and indoor combined with the 2020 schedule, he would record 4,264.1 yards per game easily nailing the over. Even taking his career averages versus all 13 opponents in 2020, his projected to total would be 4,224.7 passing yards, so it would take more than few bad games for Rodgers to hit the under. Unfortunately, it’s not that easy to predict, but the FantasyPros computer model does an excellent job of bringing all his averages and opponent difficulty into the picture.
2020 Projections and Pick
Rodgers is projected to attempt 559 passes by the FantasyPros model, and by that amount alone, he has to hit the over, right?
By the model, Rodgers’ predicted total is 4,021 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. In his 10 healthy seasons, he’s averaged 4,240 yards and 33 passing touchdowns in that span. Rodgers has attempted at least 500 passes in nine of his 10 healthy seasons and completed 300 or more every year. These predictions seem pretty accurate, and if he’s healthy, it’s difficult to imagine him not throwing for 4,000 yards.
At 36, Rodgers shouldn’t be slept on as he’s continued to be one of the five-best signal-callers in the league. The Packers are hopeful the rushing attack will improve and assist Rodgers in the play-action, a category he isn’t as stellar at as everything thinks.
He’s posted a 61% play-action completion percentage in 2019 (26th) and 61.5% in 2018 (29th) while being even worse in the red-zone. In 2018, he had a 42.5% completion percentage in the red zone (50th) and followed that up with 60% (17th) last season per PlayerProfiler. With three solid running backs, Green Bay will indeed rush more in 2020, but I guarantee Rodgers play-action games improve and become a focal point early on.
Back Rodgers to go over his 3,850.5 passing yards in 2020, as this betting line is a little low for the amount of 4,000-yard seasons he has produced over the last four years. He’s shown no signs of depreciation or regression, and until that happens, don’t bet against the man.
The Pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 3850.5 Passing Yards (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @VaughnDalzell.