Will Alvin Kamara Go Over/Under 10.5 Total Touchdowns? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)
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Not all NFL futures wagering has to be in the form of Super Bowl bets or season win totals. A popular alternative to team futures is betting on season-long player props. Sportsbooks everywhere post various amounts of these props. The most common offerings include total yardage (passing, rushing, receiving, or any combination involving two or more of these categories) and total touchdowns.
Unlike futures wagers on a player to lead the league in a statistical category, individual player props isolate a specific player’s situation, given that it is a bet of whether they will go over or under the set line. A deep dive into the various player props available is sure to uncover a few offerings worthy of a wager. One player prop that I like for the 2020-21 NFL season focuses on Alvin Kamara’s total touchdowns.
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Alvin Kamara Total Touchdowns Over/Under Prop Bet
- Over 10.5 (+102)
- Under 10.5 (-130)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Alvin Kamara Statistical Breakdown
The 2019-20 season was a bit of a disappointment by Alvin Kamara’s standards. There was a lot of hype coming into the year that he would surpass his tremendous statistical outputs from his first two NFL seasons given that Mark Ingram had left the team in free agency. Instead, Kamara experienced multiple career-lows. While he still accounted for over 1,300 yards of total offense on the season, it was a down year relative to the expectations from his previous body of work.
Kamara did miss a pair of games to injury last season, and it’s hard to tell how much his health may have played a factor in his reduced production when he was on the field. His 171 rushing attempts were 23 fewer than the preceding season, a bit surprising given that Ingram was no longer in New Orleans. Kamara also experienced career-lows in targets, receiving yards, and yards per reception. His six total touchdowns (five rushing, one receiving) were 12 fewer than the 18 he scored the year before and also marked the first time in his young NFL career that he failed to score more than 12 times. Refer to the chart below for a complete list of Kamara’s 2019-20 statistics.
A sound all-around statistical campaign does not necessarily guarantee a ton of touchdowns. Kamara’s 2019-20 season is the perfect reflection of this. While it is true that his rushing attempts, passing targets, and rushing and receiving yards all declined from the season prior, Kamara did hold steady in rushing yards per attempt and total receptions and saw an increase in his catch percentage. Assuming full health in 2020-21, which would guarantee two extra games of action, there is no need to be concerned about his workload. A positive regression to the mean in total touchdowns should be expected.
Alvin Kamara Season Outlook
Kamara will once again be the primary back in a Saints’ offense that has the potential to be even better than last year. Drew Brees is back under center. While age is a real factor for the NFL’s all-time passing yards and touchdowns leader at this stage in his career, Brees figures to have some gas left in the tank. The Saints also signed Jameis Winston as a sound insurance policy in the offseason. Kamara figures to thrive no matter who is under center on any given week.
Latavius Murray will once again be the backup to Kamara in the Saints’ backfield. While Murray is not a pushover, it was pretty apparent last year that Kamara is the clear lead back over him, as opposed to the more comparable timeshare the Saints ran with Kamara and Ingram. The real concern might be if the Saints opt to use the bigger Murray to punch it in the end zone in goal-line sets.
Kamara has caught 81 balls exactly in all three of his NFL seasons. There is a chance that he comes in under that number in 2020-21. The Saints signed receiver Emmanuel Sanders to work alongside superstar Michael Thomas. Add in tight end Jared Cook and New Orleans has the deepest group of pass-catchers it has had in years. Kamara will once again play a significant role as a terrific safety valve out of the backfield.
Alvin Kamara Total Touchdowns Prop Bet Pick
The New Orleans Saints figure to once again be near the top of the NFL in terms of offensive production in 2020-21. With a clearly defined role as the lead running back and his ability to pose as a pass-catcher, Alvin Kamara will be a big part of the team’s game plan.
Looking at Kamara’s stats over the entirety of his three-year NFL career, there is good reason to expect a positive regression from last year’s 6 total touchdowns. The betting market line of 10.5 TDs is lower than Kamara’s output in each of his first two seasons. 8 and 14 rushing touchdowns in his first two pro seasons respectively suggest that Kamara should get most of the 11 needed for an over on the ground. Sprinkle in a couple of receiving scores and the over is very realistic. Add in the value of short plus-money odds and it is a bet that is very much worth making.
Pick: Alvin Kamara OVER 10.5 Total Touchdowns at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.