Will Cam Newton or Teddy Bridgewater Throw for More TDs & Yards? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)
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DraftKings Sportsbook just made things exciting post-Cam Newtonâs signing with the New England Patriots. Shortly after joining Bill Belichick and the Pats, DraftKings posted Newtonâs updated betting odds, making him his own unique category.
The âCam Newton Specialsâ have player match bets with Tom Brady and Teddy Bridgewater for the upcoming 2020 NFL season. Brady, at 42-years-old and with a top-tandem in the league at wide receiver, isnât worth a bet, especially at -670 odds for more passing yards and -540 for touchdowns, but Newton versus Bridgewater â now weâre talking.
The new Carolina Panthers quarterback, Bridgewater, is the favorite in passing touchdowns (-167) and passing yards (-134) over Newton in his first season with the Patriots. Bridgewater versus Newton will be more than close in some ways, but thereâs a definite winner here, and it doesnât take much to figure out.
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The Case for Cam Newton
Newton, for the first time in his entire career, missed more than two games in a season last year, and that was enough for most of the football world to call him washed up. A mid-foot sprain to one of the greatest rushing quarterbacks in league history was detrimental to the 6-foot-5, 248-pound Newton.
Now Newtonâs in New England, months after they let the greatest quarterback of all time walk, and this move was the best-case scenario for the 2015 league MVP. A one-year deal to revamp Newtonâs stock was much needed on his end after Carolina parted ways and couldnât find a trade partner, but the singing still comes as a surprise. Newton finished with 3,000 or more passing yards and 3,600 or more total yards in every year of his career.
Newtonâs had four seasons with 600 or more rushing yards and two double-digit rushing touchdown seasons, the only quarterback in NFL history to accomplish either of those feats per Pro-Football-Reference. Among quarterbacks, Newton ranks first all-time in rushing attempts (934), first in rushing touchdowns (58), and third in rushing yards (4,806). All of the work in the ground game was undoubtedly going to take a toll on his body. His only significant injury since his 2016 concussion was a sprain in Week 15 of 2018 that required surgery on his throwing shoulder.
At the start of 2019, Newton completed 50-of-89 passes for 572 yards and an interception. Thatâs 286 yards per game and 11.44 yards per completion, both substantial numbers for someone coming off shoulder surgery. In those two games, he had five rushing attempts for -2 yards, so it was obvious that his foot may have had problems already.
In 2018, Newton played 14 games and had the NFLâs highest play-action completion percentage (75.7%) per PlayerProfiler. Newton also finished top-10 in money throws with 33 (7th), a 74.8% true completion percentage (5th), and 28 dropped passes from his receiving core (8th). He ran for the second-most rushing yards (488) and the least amount of touchdowns (4) in his career to that point, leading many to believe the foot started to have problems sometime in 2018.
His arm was very underrated in 2018, as he threw the second-most touchdowns of his career (24) and over 3,300 yards (3,395) for the seventh time in his career in only 14 games. Now, heâs a New England Patriot, and if his Instagram videos donât get you jacked or motivated for his comeback, then you may not be a real football fan, or you just donât like Newton.
The Patriotsâ offense can be complimentary to Cam because he wonât be asked to do too much, nor throw the ball downfield too often. In 2018, Newton threw 41 deep balls in 14 games (2.9 per game), ranking 28th overall in the league, and in 2019, he threw seven deep passes in two contests. That combines for a 16-game sample, totaling 48 (3.0) deep balls. How does that much up with Brady in the same offense?
Brady recorded 60 deep balls (3.8) in 2019 and 69 in 2018 (4.3), ranking 18th and 11th, respectively. Brady is the definition of a drop-back pocket passer, while Newton is the new generation of a linebacker playing quarterback. Newton wonât be asked to throw for the top-10 attempts in the league like Brady did for the last three years.
The Pats have a running back system of Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead, and Brandon Bolden to relieve Newton of his rushing duties. The receiving core is a step down from what he had in Carolina, but a 34-year-old Julian Edelman, a 30-year-old Mohamed Sanu, and a 22-year-old NâKeal Harry will suffice with Belichick as the coach.
For most of his career, Newton has had a top-five defense behind him, and that continues with reigning Defensive MVP Stephon Gilmore and this Patriots unit. No place will feel like home faster than New England once Newton gets in that end zone and dabs on emâ.
The Case for Teddy Bridgewater
Bridgewater has his work cut out for him in the NFC South, playing for the worst team in the division and facing thee playoff contenders twice a year, but heâs one of the most underrated quarterbacks in this league. Much like Lamar Jackson in 2018, Bridgewater had to wait to hear his name called in 2014. It wasnât until the 32nd pick that the Vikings took the former Lousiville Cardinal.
Bridgewater was well on his way to his third-straight season as Minnesotaâs starter before his ACL tear and knee dislocation in 2016 held him out for the next year. Bridgewater wouldnât earn his next start until Week 17 with New Orleans in 2018, and he started five contests in relief of Drew Brees in 2019. This has been somewhat of a comeback story for both quarterbacks, which makes this matchup all that more interesting.
With the Saints last season, Bridgewater had the lowest average intended air yards (6.2) of any quarterback in the league, despite having Michael Thomas, per NFL NextGen Stats. Bridgewater also posted the shortest completed deep ball of any quarterback last year with 42.8 yards, and Drew Brees was second-to-last with a 45.4-yard completion.
The deep ball isnât in Bridgewaterâs playbook either, so both Bridgewater and Newton may see their receivers do a bulk of the heavy lifting on offense with yards after the catch. If thatâs the case, Carolina has the better offense suited for individual success in a few key areas. Carolina passed the ball 39.6 times per game in 2019, the second-most in the league compared to New Orleansâ 15th-place finish with 36.2.
Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, Ian Thomas, and newly-acquired wide receiver Robby Anderson will be the primary targets, and thatâs a great starting group to have after joining your third team in four years. McCaffrey, aside from being a fantasy god, is arguably the best running back in the game and no worse than third-best on anyoneâs list. Moore (23), Samuel (23), Mccaffrey (24), and Thomas (25) are all younger than the 27-year-old Bridgewater and Anderson (27) on offense.
That could cause some exciting football in Carolina this season, and the defense added some pieces to try and keep their offense on the field longer. Bridgewater most definitely has the better offense equipped to outshine Newton in passing yards and touchdowns, but how does the Panthers new head coach, Matt Ruhle, affect everything?
Ruhle coached 22 players that went on to the NFL, and one of them was Robby Anderson in 2016. While Ruhle was a head coach at Temple (2013-2016), he coached Anderson in 2013 and 2015. Anderson was not with the team in 2014, but he finished his red-shirt season with the Owls and went on to be undrafted. Ruhle certainly played a factor in the recruitment of Anderson, and with his speed, he fits right into this dynamic receiving core.
Bridgewater has the advantage in my book, and the FantasyPros model sets the two very far apart.
FantasyPros 2020 Projections and Picks
Bridgewater most likely will throw many more passes than Newton in the first season with their respective new teams. The FantasyPros model backs that with 351 completions on 550 attempts for Bridgewater compared to Newtonâs 294-of-477 projection. With that said, Bridgewater is a lock for more passing yards, and the model sets him at 3,860 passing yards, a total Newton only surpassed twice in his career and hasnât surpassed since 2012.
If Bridgewater surpasses his DraftKings line of 3,500.5 (-110), Newton shouldnât have a chance at reaching that.
As far as touchdowns, thatâs a much closer prop, and Newton has a shot at contending for that. Newtonâs odds are at 19.5 passing touchdowns, while Bridgewaterâs are at 18.5. Both quarterbacks are projected to record 21 passing scores, and Newton has recorded 21 or more in three of his last four seasons.
Bridgewaterâs career-high is 14 passing touchdowns, and he did that twice in 12 and 16 games with the Vikings in 2014 and 2015 respectively. I still believe Bridgewater has the better overall offense, weapons, and upside as far as statistics, but Newtonâs a more polished passer, and his threat in the running game opens up the play-action that heâs dominated so often in his career.
With the passing touchdowns prop a toss-up, the passing yards prop is an absolute lock for me with Bridgewater over Newton at -167 odds. The number of pass attempts the two will throw wonât even be comparable, and for that, Bridgewater is a safe bet.
The Pick: Teddy Bridgewater More Passing Yards (-167) at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @VaughnDalzell.