Will CeeDee Lamb Go Over/Under 700.5 Receiving Yards? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)
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Receiving props always present an interesting challenge. Under hits more often, especially on season-long props where injury can limit production opportunities. However, every year there are props that immediately stand out, very often they are the over/under prop totals assigned to rookies. The CeeDee Lamb prop at DraftKings is no different. There appears to be an obvious initial lean, but as always, deeper analysis is required before placing any action. Let’s dig in.
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CeeDee Lamb 700.5 receiving yards (via DraftKings)
Over (-110)
Under (-110)
The Player
CeeDee Lamb is an exceptionally talented wide receiver that somehow fell into the Dallas Cowboys lap at 17th overall in the 2020 NFL. Dallas had designs on trading up explosive wideout, but could not find a trade partner they could agree on terms with. They were likely set to go with an edge rusher, safety, or cornerback in their first round, but lucked out and ended up landing their top target.
Arguably the top wide receiver prospect in the entire 2020 NFL Draft class, CeeDee Lamb has the makings of a future number one receiver. He is an excellent downfield receiver and should be a source of big plays for the Cowboys. Lamb averaged an outstanding 21.4 yards per reception. 41.93 percent of his receptions went for 20 or more yards in 2019, a number that placed him second among all draft-eligible receivers.
He has the versatility to play inside or outside and has the route running skills to create separation on a variety of routes. He is a smart route runner with great suddenness to his routes. As polished as any receiver in the 2020 NFL Draft, Lamb has excellent hands and great change of direction skills. He displays great burst with the ball in his hands and figures to be an explosive weapon for at least the next decade.
He was dominant with Kyler Murray as his quarterback in 2018. He hauled in an impressive 65 receptions for 1,158 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Despite going from a number one overall pick in Murray to a dual-threat quarterback in Jalen Hurts, CeeDee Lamb was still able to make a leap in his junior season. He recorded 62 receptions, 1,327 receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns en route to being a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award as college football’s top receiver.
The Opportunity
CeeDee Lamb will be stepping right into the number three receiver role vacated by Randall Cobb. Despite being in the decline phase of his career, in 15 games played, Cobb was able to record a 55-828-3 receiving line off 83 targets. Barring a multi-week injury, this should be considered Lamb’s floor as a rookie. The offense also lost Jason Witten this offseason, a tight end who saw 83 targets in 2019. Cobb was able to post 828 receiving yards despite being the number four or five option in some contests. Lamb will likely have more games as the number two target than he has as the number four.
It would be a mild surprise if Lamb was unable to post at least 900 receiving yards if he makes it through the season healthy. He will have the benefit of not having to face opposing teams’ number one corners as a rookie. He has the talent for a 1,000 receiving yard rookie campaign but may not be able to squeeze out the necessary targets to do so if he remains behind both Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup for the entire season.
Final Thoughts
While all season long over prop plays come with an extra degree of risk due to COVID-19, CeeDee Lamb recording at least 701 receiving yards seems like one of the safest bets of any rookie receiver prop. The sharps and early bettors appeared to agree, as the juice on this prop has shot as high as -120 at DraftKings in early May. In fact, CeeDee Lamb is listed at 749.5 receiving yards at FanDuel. This, combined with the vacated targets and production left available in the wake of Randall Cobb’s departure to the Houston Texans in free agency suggests that Lamb over is a strong play. If there is only one rookie prop you place action on this offseason, this should likely be it. Take Lamb over at DraftKings as a multi-unit play.
Pick: CeeDee Lamb over 700.5 receiving yards (-110)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.