Will Chase Young Go Over/Under 8.5 Sacks? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)
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Looking for a defensive player season-long prop? Having trouble finding one? Look no further. DraftKings Sportsbook has posted a Chase Young prop at a number that can only be described as extremely modest for a player of his talent level. However, as you may know, the under has a higher hit rate for season-long props. When we add to that the unique risks and challenges of playing a season in the midst of a worldwide pandemic, it is fair to wonder which side the true value lies on. Let’s dig in to uncover the answer.
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Chase Young Over/Under 8.5 sacks (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Over (-134)
- Under (+110)
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The Player
Chase Young is an incredibly talented defensive end who was unanimously viewed as the top overall talent in the 2020 NFL Draft. Arguably the top defensive end prospect in recent memory, Chase Young was discussed as the better NFL prospect when current San Francisco 49ers defensive end and reigning defensive rookie of the year Nick Bosa was still at Ohio State (when Young was still a sophomore). Young appears to be a lock for defensive rookie of the year honors himself, with only high snap linebackers like Patrick Queen and Kenneth Murray expected to even garner any first-place votes.
A future All-Pro, Young does have some technique issues to clean up, but the same can be said about almost any prospect regardless of position. He is already a Pro Bowl level talent whom while truly elite rushing the passer, also excels stopping the run. Explosive with a non-stop motor, it will be sooner rather than later when NFL analysts and beat writers are wondering aloud whether or not Chase Young is the best defensive end (this excludes the Khalil Mack’s and Von Miller’s) in the entire NFL. Perhaps the best way to accentuate his upside is via these quotes from his head coach Ron Rivera via NFL.com:
“He’s not quite as big as Julius was,†Rivera said, via the team’s official website. “He’s built like him; he’s a mini version of him. He’s got a little bit more of that initial explosion. Julius was very long and his explosion was good, but because of his length it seemed even better than it really, truly was. I mean Julius was phenomenal, and this is a young man who could be that type of player.â€
“Von Miller comes to my mind when I watch Chase and I watch him work out and I watch the tape he’s putting out,†Rivera added, “so I’m pretty excited about seeing him.â€
While coach speak is very common at this time of the year, especially for rookies, it is notable when you instantly recognize that there is in fact no hyperbole in his comments. Chase Young is, and can be that good. A generational talent who has the quick twitch, power, speed, and size to dominate in the NFL, it would be a surprise if Young did not post double digit sacks on an annual basis.
The Opportunity
Opportunity is much harder to gauge when it comes to defensive players. Here is what we do know. Young will be the most talented player on a defensive line that racked up 46 sacks last season. That put them 10th in the league and suggests that they are already a very good unit. Last year’s unit is virtually intact, but there may now be a three-man rotation at defensive tackle since Young will be laying claim to a starting role.
The most snaps any player on the defensive line saw last season was 989 from Matt Ioannidis. He was able to register 8.5 sacks, mostly from the interior. 2019 rookie Montez Sweat was able to log seven sacks. While he was a combine star and a first-round pick, Sweat is not even in the same universe as Chase Young as a prospect. 2018 first-round pick Jonathan Allen was able to muster six sacks.
Finally, it is readily apparent that Chase Young will be given all the snaps he can handle. You do not take your best player off the field if you do not have to. Based on this information it is fair to conclude that Washington’s defensive line does indeed offer the opportunity for Young to clear 8.5 sacks.
Final Thoughts
Chase Young has an excellent chance to hit double-digit sacks this season, and even threaten the rookie sack record. While he will get the most attention from opposing offensive lines, very few teams will be able to even dream of handling him one on one. He has proven capable of using both speed and power to split double teams and will be impossible to stop on stunts. It is fair to wonder just how many double teams Young will actually see as the defensive front contains other blue-chip talents like Josh Allen, Montez Sweat, and Da’Ron Payne, all former first-round picks who are very talented in their own right.
As mentioned above, Matt Ionnaidis was able to rack up, and lead the defense with 8.5 sacks in 2019. Just a season after playing 989 snaps, he is likely to be pushed into a rotational role this season. Washington’s 2019 first-round pick Montez Sweat was able to compile seven sacks on 823 snaps. As posited above, Chase Young is a massive talent who is light years ahead of any pass rusher on Washington’s roster and is already the best defensive end in the NFC East.
8.5 sacks is a very attainable goal, in fact, if there were a prop for him breaking the rookie sack record, there would be heavy betting interest on the yes option. Young will not need a full 16 games to hit 8.5 sacks. The most interesting thing to watch will be just how quickly he is able to hit the over.
The -134 juice on this prop suggests that the sharps and early bettors have been all over this line, and for good reason. In a non-pandemic season, this would be a smash play, one where you would want to think of your normal unit, double that, and then double that again.
Barring the advent of a vaccine before the season starts it is recommended that you just go in for a full unit return. If you have the excess units to stuff on multiple wagers that won’t be paying out until January, by all means, put multiple units on Chase Young over. In the absence of finding oneself in that scenario, a one-unit return play will suffice.
Pick: Chase Young over 8.5 sacks (-134)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.