Will D.J. Chark Go Over/Under 975.5 Receiving Yards? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)

The value presented by NFL season-long props is among the best of any future bets. The lack of preseason games has presented an additional advantage to the well-prepared NFL fan. Today we will take a look at D.J. Chark’s receiving yards over/under total at DraftKings.

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D.J. Chark receiving yards 975.5 (via DraftKings)

• Over (-110)
• Under (-110)

The Player

D.J. Chark became the clear Jacksonville WR1 after a breakout performance in 2019. Chark produced four WR2 performances in the first five weeks, including the overall WR4 state line in Week 5 (eight receptions, 164 receiving yards, two touchdowns). He continued his production during the year with the overall WR10 performance in Week 8 and overall WR2 in Week 11 against Indianapolis. Chark’s efficiency also overcame the growing pains of quarterback Gardner Minshew’s rookie season.

With a 6-foot-3, 199 lb frame, Chark combines the prototypical alpha-wide receiver body type with 4.34 40-Yard Dash speed. His big-play ability was on display all season ranking 14th in deep targets (25) and eighth in total touchdowns (eight) among all wide receivers. Chark is the centerpiece of the Jacksonville passing attack, accounting for 31.4% of all Jaguars receiving yards and touchdowns.

All reports from the preseason have Chark dominating the competition. Wide receivers coach Keenan McCardell has provided a great resource for Chark and is helping him prepare to improve off his 2019 Pro Bowl season. Chark has also talked openly about how much new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden has already helped him. “This is the most connected I have felt to the offense — and to the players on the offense — in a long time,” Chark said. “With the addition of Coach Gruden being a head coach, knowing how to get his guys ready, knowing the strengths and weaknesses of his players, we are in good shape.”

The Opportunity 

Jacksonville receiving depth chart will provide little competition to Chark’s target share. Veterans Chris Conley, Keelan Cole, and Dede Westbrook have done little in their careers to demand a large target share. The rest of the Jaguars receiving core are rookies, led by second-round Colorado product Laviska Shenault. While Shenault provides attractive long-term upside, the shortened preseason will likely limit his weekly production.

Quarterback Gardner Minshew was thrust into the starting role after a Week 1 injury to veteran Nick Foles. Given the limited preparation, the former sixth-round pick performed well enough to inspire confidence for a strong 2020 season. Minshew tallied four QB1 performances despite ranking third among all quarterbacks with 34 dropped passes. He was also was one of the best big-play quarterbacks ranking fifth in deep-ball completion percentage (45.1%), which is the perfect complement to Chark’s 98th percentile speed. 

Chark’s consistency rivaled the top wide receivers in the league. From Weeks 1-16, Chark ranked 11th-best in 0.5 PPR fantasy points per game (13.1). Chark achieved a WR2 or better performance in 50 percent of games during that span, ranking ninth-best among those players.

Name	Team	FPPG Weeks 1-16	Total Games Weeks 1-16	WR2 or Better Games	Percentage
M. Thomas	New Orleans	19.6	15	14	93%
D. Hopkins	Houston	14.5	14	10	71%
D. Adams	Green Bay	13.9	11	7	63%
K. Golladay	Detroit	13.8	15	9	60%
J. Edelman	New England	13.5	15	9	60%
C. Godwin	Tampa Bay	16.7	14	8	57%
J. Jones	Atlanta	15.2	14	8	57%
T. Hill	Kansas City	13.8	11	6	54%
D.J. Chark	Jacksonville	13.1	14	7	50%
M. Evans	Tampa Bay	15.3	14	5	35%
C. Kupp	L.A. Rams	13.6	15	5	33%

Final Thoughts

All signs point to D.J. Chark having an even better season in 2020. As the clear WR1 in the Jacksonville offense, Chark is a great bet to surpass 975.5 receiving yards on the season. Jacksonville’s projected win total is 4.5 at DraftKings, further illustrating the likelihood of a ton of negative game scripts. Minshew and Chark should build on their strong connection from last season, and the limited receiving competition in Jacksonville solidifies Chark’s projected volume.

Pick: D.J. Chark Over 975.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

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