Will Jalen Reagor Go Over/Under 650.5 Receiving Yards? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)

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The most intriguing season-long player props are often attached to the wide receiver position. While you can sometimes find value in rookie running back props, rookie receiver props almost always present some semblance of value. The Jalen Reagor prop at DraftKings currently sits at a modest 700.5 receiving yards. Recent news provides a potential lean. Let’s dig deeper. 

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Jalen Reagor receiving yards 650.5 (via DraftKings)
Over (-110)
Under (-110)

The Player 

Jalen Reagor is an exceptionally talented wide receiver who can win at all levels of the field. A game-breaker with electric speed, Reagor is a home run threat who can function as a team’s number one receiver. An explosive wide receiver who has been timed as low as 4.36, Reagor still managed to be a first-round pick despite disappointing with a 4.47 40 time at the 2020 NFL Combine. Despite being one of the class’s elite deep threats, he has strong hands which he uses to win contested catches. All Reagor really needed was to be drafted to a team with a good offense with a talented quarterback.  

You may be wondering how a receiver who recorded just 611 receiving yards in 2019 managed to get himself drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft. As we have seen with Alabama players Henry Ruggs and Josh Jacobs, tape and analytics matter more than raw numbers. Reagor recorded a solid, but unspectacular 43 receptions, 611 receiving yards, and five touchdowns in 2019. He added 89 rushing yards on 14 attempts. However, he was much better as a sophomore when he posted 72 receptions, 1,061 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns.He added 170 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 13 attempts.

As you may have guessed quarterback issues kept Jalen Reagor from reaching his potential at TCU. While he had a strong season with Shawn Robinson and Mike Collins splitting the reps in 2018, his production dipped in 2019 with freshman quarterback Max Duggan. To put his numbers in context, Reagor 611 receiving yards in 2019 accounted for 25 percent of the Horned Frogs passing yards. His 1,061 receiving yards in 2018 represented a dominant 38.59 percent of the team’s passing yards. To again, put some context to these numbers, his 2018 market share was higher than any mark Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, or Justin Jefferson posted in their college careers. His 25 percent market share in 2019 represented a comparable season to Jefferson’s 1,540 yards (25.56 percent).

Jalen Reagor highlights the importance of game film and analytics to NFL talent evaluators. Not all situations are created equal, so you often have to trust the tape, and rely on analytics like receiving yard market share over raw stat totals you find in a standard box score. Reagor has to be seen to be believed, and is set to take the NFL by storm in 2020.

The Opportunity 

With Alshon Jeffrey both injured and ineffective, Jalen Reagor is slated to open the season as a starter opposite of veteran deep threat DeSean Jackson. While last year’s mess of a receiver corps is hard to compare to, there are 128 vacated targets in the Philadelphia Eagles offense. However, a better way to analyze the Eagles offense is to analyze the average wide receiver targets over the past three seasons. In 2017, the last time the Eagles had two or more healthy and competent wide receivers, 318 targets went to the wide receiver position. Philadelphia was on the wide receiver hunt all the way back in 2018, trading for Golden Tate mid-season. 276 targets went to the wide receiver position that season. Last year with DeSean Jackson injured after just one contest, and Alshon Jeffrey still hobbled, there were only 255 targets to the Eagles wide receivers. 

We can safely assume that there will be between 276 and 318 targets to wide receivers in 2020. For arguments sake we will split the difference at 297 targets. If we gift 110 to Jackson, and 50-70 to Alshon Jeffrey depending on when he returns from injury, we are left with at least 117 targets. Even if we give 30 of them to the Marquise Goodwin’s and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside’s of the roster, there will be 80 or more targets for Reagor, and that is erring on the side of conservatism. 

If the Eagles were to deploy Reagor strictly as a deep threat, his catch rate may be low enough for him to only haul in 45-50 of his targets. Since they will also be using him on screens, hitches, slants, ins and outs, his efficiency will rise leaving him closer to the 60 reception range. At 60 receptions, Reagor will need to average a fait accompli 10.85 yards per reception to reach the 651 receiving yards needed to hit the over. Reagor, who should be closer to the 16-18 yards per reception mark, would need just 41 receptions at 16 yards per reception to hit 651, and 37 receptions at 18 yards reception to get to the same mark. 

Final Thoughts

Jalen Reagor, now that he has essentially been confirmed as a Week 1 starter, is an easy bet to hit 651 receiving yards. Still sitting at -110 at DraftKings, this is a prop to attack sooner rather than later. This is an over/under total sure to attract the sharps, casuals, and Eagles fans making the odds becoming less favorable over time a distinct possibility. As always, the COVID-19 risk increases the probability of the under on any season-long player prop. However, the risk is mitigated here due to how far over the 651 receiving yard mark Reagor is projected to go. Even if he misses a contest or two he should still be able to hit the mark. 

Philadelphia drafted Reagor over players like Justin Jefferson, Michael Pittman, and Laviska Shenault Jr. for a reason, and that reason is because Reagor projects as an alpha number one receiver capable of consistently winning regardless of where he lines up. This prop is worth a multi-unit play if you have the bankroll to afford it. Hit the over with confidence. 

Pick: Jalen Reagor over 650.5 receiving yards (-110)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.