Will Justin Jefferson Go Over/Under 675.5 Receiving Yards? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)

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NFL season-long wide receiver props often present the most value of any offseason future. This is especially true when it comes to rookies. This is due to Vegas setting somewhat modest expectations for players at a position that usually takes some time to transduction to the NFL. As a result, we will be tackling as many rookie wide receiver props as possible. Today we will take a look at the Justin Jefferson receiving yards over/under total at DraftKings. Let’s dig in. 

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Justin Jefferson receiving yards 675.5 (via DraftKings)

Over (-110)
Under (-110)

The Player

An explosive ‘big slot’ receiver, Justin Jefferson tied James Proche for first place in the nation with 111 receptions. He ran 575 of his 583 routes out of the slot in 2019, and could quickly become a household name if he can take over the slot role for Minnesota. He projects as a possession type of receiver who is also capable of winning downfield. He may not have the highest average depth of target, but his skill after the catch should place him among the league leaders in first downs. 

Jefferson timed much better than expected at the 2020 NFL Combine, and while his 40 time ultimately did very little for his draft stock (he was always projected as a late first-round pick), it did serve to accentuate just how much of a mismatch he truly is in the slot. He always showed good game speed, but it was hard to evaluate due to his heavy slot usage. He has the ball skills and body control of an outside receiver, something that has served him exceptionally well on the inside. 

Justin Jefferson took a massive leap in 2019 thanks in large part to the improbable leap forward senior quarterback Joe Burrow made. Not even the best receiver on his own team, he was still able to record 111 receptions, 1.540 receiving yards (third in the nation), and 18 touchdowns (second in the nation). His 58 receptions for 10 or more yards placed him second among all FBS receivers. If Jefferson was eligible and had his 2019 season in 2018, he would have been in the mix to be the first wide receiver off the board in the 2019 NFL Draft. 

The Opportunity 

Justin Jefferson appears set to step into a major role for the Minnesota Vikings. He is expected to open the season as a starter across from Adam Thielen. Minnesota’s head coach Gary Kubiak recently revealed that Jefferson will be spending a lot of time in the slot, “..I would say that the fact is he’s probably going to move inside quite a bit”. He was already ticketed for a massive role as the team’s 1b receiver, but news that he may see more slot snaps than Thielen opens up the possibility of a truly explosive rookie campaign. Jefferson spent over 90 percent of his 2019 snaps in the slot. He amassed almost the entirety of his receiving yards and scored all 18 of his touchdowns when lined up inside.

With Stefon Diggs traded to the Buffalo Bills, there are 110 targets available in the Minnesota Vikings offense. If the Vikings had decided that they preferred to keep Adam Thielen inside, Jefferson may have hovered around 80-90 targets for the season. Now that we know he is ticketed for a slot role, assuming the entire 110 targets made available by Diggs’ departure is well within the realm of possibility. The more likely scenario is that Jefferson sees 90-100 targets, but it is important not to understate how much more efficient and consistent Jefferson will be if he indeed soaks up the majority of the slot snaps. He will of course spend some time on the outside in two-wide sets, but do not be surprised to see looks where Irv Smith Jr. lines up outside on some two wide snaps. 

Final Thoughts

Justin Jefferson is an excellent bet to reach 676 receiving yards on the season. When there was still some question as to who would receive the bulk of the slot snaps, this was a much trickier prop to analyze at its original number. He was projected right around the 750 receiving yard mark, which meant there was a stark lack of value on both sides when this prop was listed by DraftKings at exactly 750 receiving yards. With this prop now at a laughable 675.5, only a lengthy injury or COVID-19 ravaging the locker room should be able to prevent Jefferson from being an easy click. Now that we know that he will be in the slot, he is projected to compile between 950 and 1,050 receiving yards.  The potential is there for much more, but this is taking into account that 12 personnel may be the Vikings base package to open the season. Jefferson should haul in at least 70 of his targets this season (80-90 is more likely). At 70 receptions Jefferson would need to average just 9.65 yards per reception to hit the over. Suffice it to say that Justin Jefferson over 675.5 receiving yards is an all-day smash play. Lay multiple units at -110 at DraftKings wherever possible. 

Pick: Justin Jefferson over 675.5 receiving yards (-110)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.