Will Kyler Murray Go Over/Under 3850.5 Passing Yards? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)

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More often than not, rookie quarterbacks don’t live up to the hype. We see it year after year. A college star comes into the league and just can’t adjust to the NFL.

This makes it even more impressive, in those rare instances, when a quarterback comes in and picks up the professional game immediately. DraftKings Sportsbook currently has an interesting prop for a player who fits into this category.

The Cardinals made headlines in the 2019 NFL Draft by ending their one-year Josh Rosen experiment and selecting Kyler Murray with the first overall pick. Murray had a rough start in Week 1 against the Lions, but he pulled off some late magic to force a tie. That performance put the rest of the league on alert that he was the real deal.

The season progressed accordingly, which is why Murray currently has a pretty healthy number as his over/under for passing yards in 2020. Is it doable for the second-year QB?

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Will Kyler Murray Go Over/Under 3,850.5 Passing Yards?

Last season’s Week 1 started off as an absolute disaster for Murray. He looked overwhelmed, running around in circles and forcing plays that simply weren’t there. He was also doing this against a Lions defense that finished 2019 as one of the NFL’s worst.

Things weren’t looking good for the rookie. But then it all clicked. Somehow, Murray went from disaster to a 308-yard performance.

He followed it up the next week with an overtime battle against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Once again, Murray went over 300 yards, this time finishing with 349. The rest of the season, however, saw Murray’s passing yardage ebb and flow. He only threw for over 300 yards three more times after Week 2, while going for fewer than 200 six times.

However, Murray still managed to finish the season with 3,722 yards, just 128 fewer than where his over/under for this season stands. Should we expect a setback from Murray this year?

Based on other preseason player props, it seems that Vegas and bettors expect the Cardinals to be more of a running team in 2020. Kenyan Drake has a high rushing total, and Murray has shown that he can absolutely fly when he hits the open field. He won’t run the ball at Jackson’s level, but there is reason to believe that Murray could take away from his own passing yards on the ground.

Will the Cardinals really be a run-heavy offense this season? They just went out and got DeAndre Hopkins in the biggest move of the offseason, which gives Murray three huge weapons in his wide receiving corps. Larry Fitzgerald already said he wanted to come back for another season because he was excited about Murray, and Christian Kirk will look to build off a solid 2019.

Then you have the coach. Kliff Kingsbury is known for an air-raid style of football. Though the Cardinals had more success last season when they were able to run the ball, they are likely going to find themselves trailing often this season in a crowded NFC West.

Many may look at that division as the reason why Murray’s total isn’t higher. However, he put up 1,238 yards through the air in six games against his divisional foes last season. That includes a Week 16 victory over the Seahawks that saw Murray only throw the ball 18 times for 118 yards, as the Cardinals steamrolled Seattle on the ground.

So where does that leave Murray this season? There is always the possibility of a step back. It happens all the time for quarterbacks. Now that opposing defenses have tape on them, they are able to scheme and forge better plans to stop them. However, it doesn’t always work, as was the case with Jackson just a season ago. 

Murray feels like one of those quarterbacks who just knows how to get it done. Many doubted him in his first season, and he went out and proved them wrong. It seems fitting that he’d do the same this season by improving his numbers with a revamped offense and a team that believes it can compete in the NFC West.

The Pick: Kyler Murray over 3,850.5 passing yards (-110)

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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.