Will Lamar Jackson Run For More Than 919.5 Yards? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson broke the single-season quarterback rushing record last year when he compiled 1,206 rushing yards on the ground. He was also the first player ever to have over 1000-plus yards rushing and a passer rating above 100, and he was the first quarterback with five 100-yard rushing games. Now the question is what he’ll do for his encore.
Jackson is facing a regular-season rushing total of 919.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, but will he get over that mark for the second year in a row? Let’s take a look at both scenarios. You can check out all of our 2020 NFL Player Prop Bets here.
Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>
Why Will Jackson Hit the Over?
Because 919.5 rushing yards is a low number for him. We’re talking about a guy who had 338 rushing yards in a three-week span (Weeks 5-7 last year), so if he keeps that up, this 919.5 total is something he can break right around mid-season.
The reality is that the Ravens offense is lethal because of his legs. Sure, he’s an improved passer – a very good one, at that – but what scares defenses is when they expect him to pass, and he takes off running. That extra threat is what led the Ravens to a 14-2 record last season. They finished as the only team to average more than 400 yards per game (407.2).
Sure, defenses now know that Jackson is a big-time threat on the ground, and that has to be accounted for, but it’s not as if there is a clear-cut way to stop him. Even once teams figured out Michael Vick was lethal as a runner, they couldn’t exactly do much to slow him down. He averaged 6.9, 6.4, 7.5, 5.9, and 8.4 yards per carry from 2002-2006. They knew he was coming, and they still had no answers. The same is the case for Jackson.
Why Will Jackson Hit the Under?
Defenses could adjust. The Ravens have some OK weapons in the passing game, but at this point, you’re probably better off taking your chances with Jackson trying to find guys like Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown than letting Jackson beat you with his legs.
Andrews led the team in receiving yards with 852 while Brown earned just 584. Unless the receiving weapons improve – and they very well could as Andrews, Brown are young – then defenses would be smart to devote less attention to them and more to Jackson.
Prediction
I have a tough time with the under here. Jackson is a special talent, and I see him hitting the 1000-yard mark once again. Remember, he had 695 rushing yards as a rookie, and that was with seeing part-time action. As a starter in 2018, he averaged 76.3 rushing yards per game, and as a starter in 2019, he compiled 1,206 in 15 regular-season games and then ran for 143 in the playoff contest. This total seems too low, so go over.
Pick: Over 919.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Make an Online Sports Bet — or head to more advanced strategy — like How to Set and Maintain Your Sports Betting Budget — to learn more.
Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.