Will Melvin Gordon Go Over/Under 775.5 Rushing Yards? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)
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Last week, I discussed my thoughts about whether Nick Chubb would go over/under 1300.5 rushing yards. During that article, we settled on a simple philosophy when looking at player props. You will always be better off betting on players with defined roles in their offense who have a recent history of surpassing their current line.
Let other people make assumptions based on uncertainty and name-brand players. Herein lies the argument for betting against Melvin Gordon we have limited ways of knowing how much volume he will see. This line feels way too high, here’s why you can expect Melvin Gordon to go under this line from DraftKings.
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He may not be the most talented back in this backfield
This one is plain and simple. When setting this line, the bookies have assumed that he is going to waltz in to (at least) the early-down back role in this offense. There is no guarantee of that. He is only being paid $7 million dollars this year, which speaks volumes to the fact that Denver doesn’t intend to use him as a bell-cow.
Phillip Lindsay is a talented back who has been trusted with over 180 carries per season in this offense in the last two years and has justified every single one of them. In his career, Gordon has only once averaged over 4 YPA (4.7 in 2018). Over his career, Lindsay has averaged 4.9 YPA. Sneakily important is the fact that on over 400 career carries, Lindsay has never fumbled, a problem that Melvin Gordon rediscovered last season.
There are a lot of mouths to feed on this offense
More than just Phillip Lindsay, this backfield also contains Royce Freeman, who saw over 100 carries last year. While both he and Lindsay will surely concede some of their 2019 workload to Gordon, projecting him to see more than 45% of the teams carries is optimistic. Further eating into that workload is a young QB who has had at least 2 scripted runs in 3 of 5 career starts.
Denver also has a lot of receivers who will demand targets in 2020. Last year, Denver won four of the five games Drew Lock started but they only put up 100 rushing yards in one. This suggests that they are going to see more profound issues than can be explained by game script.
Talking about game script, this team will be playing from behind
There will be a lot of differing opinions about Drew Lock’s first starts. The fact is, statistically, it was worrying. Without going into it in too much detail, his paltry YPA indicates that Denver could end up seeing many more negative game scripts. This will be compounded by the loss of Chris Harris Jr. catalyzing a significant defensive regression. If Denver are playing from behind often, they won’t be handing the ball off.
Conclusion
Above, I have outlined three reasons why Melvin Gordon will not see anywhere near the volume to reach this line. To underline the above I want to try and break down the numbers explicitly. Even as the most optimistic bettor in the world, you can’t project more than a 5% increase in the 370 running back carries this offense handed out last year. Being generous and slating Gordon to get 50% of those carries, his absolute ceiling is around 190 carries. For him to cover this line while seeing 190 carries, he would have to average 4.1 YPC.
That is a number he has only managed once in his career. In actuality, he is unlikely to really see even 170 carries. I, for one, am not confident that he will be able to take a big step forward in 2020.
Pick: Melvin Gordon under 775.5 Rushing yards
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Ethan Summers is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ethan, check out his archive and follow him @AllSummersLong_.