Will Rob Gronkowski Go Over/Under 5 Touchdowns? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including How to Choose a Sportsbook — or head to more advanced strategy — like Which Sports Are Most Profitable to Bet? — to learn more.
NFL player props can be a lot of fun to place but are unfortunately often very difficult to cash in on. Injuries, up and down years, off the field issues, or problems in the locker room can all lead to what looked like a lock preseason ultimately showing itself impossible well before week 17. But there are ways to beat Vegas at this, and one of those ways is with the unknown. Especially when that unknown is actually something that NFL bettors are quite familiar with.
DraftKings has a very interesting prop on their website now, in fact, it is currently the only receiving touchdowns player prop listed. We’re going down to Tampa Bay where Rob Gronkowski’s total receiving touchdown season total is set at 5.
Check out all of our 2020 NFL Player Prop Bets here.
Get a sign-up bonus up to $1,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>
Will Rob Gronkowski Go Over/Under 5 Touchdowns?
After a year of retirement, Gronk is back. The former New England Patriots’ tight end has left Massachusetts to join his former quarterback, Tom Brady, in Tampa Bay. Gronk and Brady are two new additions to what was already going to be one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL. So where does Gronk fit in? Probably not where you would think.
When big-name players come out of retirement the excitement is understandable. We saw it with Jason Witten just a year ago. They get drafted in fantasy drafts, probably much higher than they should be, as all eyes are focused on their return to form. Gronk and Brady set records in New England and were able to bring three rings home to the Patriots. Will they be able to replicate it now?
Simply put, no. Both men are older. Both men have lost a step. And both men are playing in a different environment than the one they became accustomed to under Bill Belichick. Gronk is going to infuriate fantasy owners this season. The much younger OJ Howard will take a lot of his catches and a lot of his yards, while Gronk will likely spend more time on the field as a decoy than as a viable weapon. So in terms of yards ignore Gronk entirely. However, when it comes to touchdowns DraftKings’ number is low.
In six of his nine seasons, Gronk went for more than five touchdowns. Five of those seasons saw him go for at least 10. In his last season in the league, he was only able to put up three touchdowns in 13 games. His production was down across the board in 2018, but what does that mean for his 2020?
While I think that Gronk will be used as a decoy in the middle of the field, his huge frame will be used for scoring purposes in the red zone. The Bucs have an array of giant targets down there which will make it impossible to double any of them. If you put two on Gronk then that means Chris Godwin is open. If you put two on Godwin then Mike Evans is open. It’s going to be a problem for teams all season, but one thing will remain consistent: Gronk will be matched up with defenders much smaller than him. Unlike in past seasons, he won’t take abuse getting the ball down the field and instead will be fresh for red zone opportunities.
This doesn’t mean I think Gronk is going to go for 10 touchdowns or more, but I do think he’s going to go for somewhere between six and eight. What’s going to be frustrating for fantasy owners is this may come across just three or four games where Gronk has a particularly good matchup. But what is great about betting it as a future is that you don’t care when he gets the touchdowns, just that he does.
Two two-touchdown performance games would open the door for an easy win here. It might be stressful if he goes a few games without a touchdown, but I predict he will be used early in the season to prove that he isn’t just a decoy in this high-powered offense. After his role is established, the Bucs may lighten up his use to prevent injuries and wear and tear as the season catches up to him like it has done so many times in his past.
Either way being able to push at five and win at six means that Gronk going over five touchdowns is one of the best player props you’re going to get this season.
The Pick: Rob Gronkowski over 5 touchdowns (-110)
View the best online sportsbook offers from legal sportsbooks >>
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.