Will Sam Darnold Go Over/Under 3549.5 Passing Yards? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)

As the NFL calendar turns to July, free agency moves have largely come to a halt, and team rosters are starting to take shape for the start of training camp at the end of the month. For many, the start of camp means the season is just around the corner, and the same goes for bettors looking to finalize their season-long futures and prop bets.

One category of bet, the season-long player prop bet, has gained traction in recent years as the legalization of sports betting has spread like wildfire across the country.

In New Jersey, where sports betting has been legal as long as anywhere in the country except Nevada, a local quarterback will be looking to take the next step forward and become one of the league’s elite. In today’s piece, I breakdown where I see the value remaining in his season-long over-under passing yards prop.

Let’s take a closer look.

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Will Sam Darnold Go Over/Under 3549.5 Passing Yards? 

Over 3549.5 (-112) / Under 3549.5 (-112) (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Since being taken as the third overall pick in 2018, New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold has been a spark to a fan base and franchise that desperately needed one. The defacto starter ever since, Darnold has been thrown directly into the fire in a difficult division and has thus far seen mixed results.

Starting his rookie season with barely any backfield and a weak offensive line, Darnold threw for 2,865 yards and 17 touchdowns but struggled to find consistency. His 15 interceptions and QBR of 45.5 failed to live up to year one expectations, but in spots, his potential shined through and was enough to keep his believers fully engaged.

2019 was supposed to be the year that Darnold took the step with Gang Green and propelled them to legitimate playoff contenders. The front office brought in Le’Veon Bell in the backfield and bolstered a line that was assigned to protect their franchise guy. Then came the mono.

While he missed just two games in total, with his bout with mono coming around a bye week, Darnold was forced to wear a balky rib brace for the remainder of the season and never looked comfortable. Even still, his numbers improved, however, throwing for 3,024 yards on the season and improving in every category across the board.

Coming into 2020-21, the pressure is officially back on for Darnold and second-year head coach Adam Gase to win, and win now. Their 273 yards of offense per game last season ranked last in the league, and GM Joe Douglas certainly took notice in April. With their first-round picks, the Jets sured up one of the few remaining gaps in their line with offensive tackle Mekhi Becton, as well brought in a new target for Darnold in wide receiver Denzel Mims.

The bottom line for me is this will be Darnold’s first full offseason with Gase, and with one of his biggest advantages over his fellow quarterback class coming between the ears, I think we see a significant step forward. With the rib protector on for the entire 2019 season, Darnold was also limited in his mobility outside of the pocket. Darnold is sneaky mobile when he gets outside the hashes, and with his ability of motion at 100% this fall, I think we see his numbers take another big step forward.

Prediction: OVER 3549.5 Passing Yards