Will Stefon Diggs Go Over/Under 975.5 Receiving Yards? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)
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Not all NFL futures wagering has to be in the form of Super Bowl bets or season win totals. A popular alternative to team futures is betting on season-long player props. Sportsbooks everywhere post various amounts of these props. The most common offerings include total yardage (passing, rushing, receiving, or any combination involving two or more of these categories) and total touchdowns.
Unlike futures wagers on a player to lead the league in a statistical category, individual player props isolate a specific player’s situation, given that it is a bet of whether they will go over or under the set line. A deep dive into the various player props available is sure to uncover a few offerings worthy of a wager. One player prop that I like for the 2020-21 NFL season focuses on Stefon Diggs’ total receiving yards.
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Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Over/Under Prop Bet
- Over 975.5 (-110)
- Under 975.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Stefon Diggs Statistical Breakdown
Stefon Diggs found himself among the news headlines in the early portion of the 2019-20 NFL season when he complained that he was not getting enough targets. While some labeled him as a “diva receiver†on the spot, his desire to play a bigger role in the Minnesota Vikings’ offense was ultimately met as the season progressed.
QB Kirk Cousins began to look his way more often. Aided by an injury-plagued year for fellow wideout Adam Thielen, Diggs put together his highest receiving yardage total for a season as a pro, finishing with over 1100. It marked the second straight campaign in which Diggs eclipsed the 1000-yard mark, both coming with Cousins as his quarterback. His 6 receiving touchdowns did not represent a career-high but were still a solid result. A complete list of Diggs’ 2019-20 stats can be found in the chart below.
Despite finishing with nearly 60 fewer targets and 40 fewer receptions than the 2018-19 season, Diggs was still able to set the career-high mark in yardage. The noticeable difference to allow this comes in his average yards per catch. Last year, that number stood at a crazy 17.9. Considering he had never had a season with a yards per catch mark higher than 13.8 prior, that number is a major outlier. While Diggs does have the speed and athleticism to be a big-play receiver, the switch to a Buffalo Bills team that isn’t exactly explosive offensively works against him. I expect a regression to the mean in a big way.
Stefon Diggs Season Outlook
As alluded to above, Diggs is now a member of the Buffalo Bills after being traded in the offseason. This means he will be tasked with getting acclimated to a new offense, building chemistry with quarterback Josh Allen, and live up to the expectations of being the Bills’ elite receiving threat right away. While the true greats always do their homework and are well prepared, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has certainly put a damper on the offseason work NFL teams have been able to put in. Diggs may adjust very well, but there could be a lack of chemistry and trust between him and Allen, especially early on with limited time to work together.
While Diggs figures to be the Bills leading wideout, the second and third options already have experience playing with Allen and in the Buffalo offense. Speedster John Brown and slot man Cole Beasley will continue to demand looks. If defenses opt to key in on Diggs, his target share could dip in favor of the Bills’ other weapons. It also cannot go unstated that Buffalo identifies as more of a run-heavy offense than the one Diggs is coming from in Minnesota. Devin Singletary and Zack Moss are both well-rounded backs who are capable of catching balls out of the backfield. Rookie fourth-round pick Gabriel Davis brings high upside to the table and could see some looks this year as well.
Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop Bet Pick
While the Buffalo Bills as a team have tremendous potential for the 2020-21 season, there are too many things that have me skeptical about Stefon Diggs finding immediate success. While the past two seasons marked the best of his five-year career from a statistical standpoint, it is important to remember that those came with a different franchise.
The line of 975.5 receiving yards for Diggs this season is higher than his total yardage output in any season before 2018-19. While he has shown that he can produce with Kirk Cousins as his quarterback, that doesn’t guarantee similar success with the young Josh Allen. Competition for targets from John Brown and Cole Beasley, along with Buffalo’s commitment to the ground game could lead to a decrease in targets for Diggs. Even if his targets hold steady, his yards per catch is sure to come down from last season. There are more than enough reasons to grab the under on Diggs’ receiving yards prop this season.
Pick: Stefon Diggs UNDER 975.5 Receiving Yards at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.