Will Tom Brady Throw More Than 10.5 Interceptions? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)
As many know, one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time has recently left his long-time team. Tom Brady, the legendary New England Patriot, is now a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Many are excited to see how far Brady can take Bucs and see just how he’ll do without Bill Belichick supporting him. FanDuel Sportsbook has a prop up on how many interceptions he’ll throw with the number set at 10.5. Let’s take a look at both sides of this and see what’s the right bet.
Check out all of our 2020 NFL Player Prop Bets here.
Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>
Why Brady Might Throw More Than 10 Interceptions?
Odds: Over 10.5 Interceptions -104 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Brady has been good for so many years due to a number of different factors. One of those being that he has had one coach for most of his career in Belichick. Belichick, being such a great football mind, was a big part of Brady’s constant success out in New England. Brady didn’t always have the best casts around him but the team managed to maximize the talent by scheming properly.
The big issue here is the change. If you think Brady hits the over here, it’s because maybe father time catches up with him. The soon-to-be 43-year-old could have stayed in a system he knew. Instead, he opted for something completely different. Will the offensive line hold up? Will the Bucs be able to run the ball? Will the long-time losing franchise follow Brady’s lead and become a winner? These are all big questions and if you think he goes over, the answer to most of these is negative.
Why Brady Might Throw Less Than 10 Interceptions?
Odds: Under 10.5 Interceptions -122 at FanDuel Sportsbook
On the other hand, Brady is still one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. He is a very intelligent football player and has the opportunity to pick up the playbook and scheme very quickly. He definitely has the offensive firepower to make the transition much smoother with receivers such as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Brady also has a longtime friend and teammate Rob Gronkowski with him, who has recently come out of retirement to join Brady on the Buccaneers. This is about as good of a receiver cast as Brady has ever had. That’s going to help him out big-time.
The over-under here is set at 10.5 but Brady has rarely gone over that number. He had just eight picks last season, which was the fifth time in the last six years that the under would have hit here. Even when the over has connected (when he’s thrown 11 or more), he’s gone no higher than 11 in the last eight seasons.
Prediction
I think we’re going to see an over here. Brady faded a little bit down the stretch last season and he’s changing schemes. The Patriots were more run-heavy last year, finishing ninth in rushing attempts. The Bucs simply don’t have that type of running game, so Brady is going to be throwing it more.
The other factor here too is the Pats defense was elite last year whereas the Bucs unit is a work in progress. That means the Bucs and Brady might be in more shootouts. That also guides me to lean to the over. Brady had 613 passing attempts last season; Bruce Arians’s teams have averaged 625 over his last three seasons as head coach.
Brady should still have a good year but I’m still expecting him to hit the over.
Pick: Over 10.5 Interceptions at FanDuel Sportsbook
View the top deposit bonuses and promo codes for each sportsbook >>
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Make an Online Sports Bet — or head to more advanced strategy — like How to Set and Maintain Your Sports Betting Budget — to learn more.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.