WNBA Finals Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (10/20)
Well, we finally made it, Game 5 of the WNBA Finals. It's all tied up 2-2 and it all comes down to this. What a time to be alive. Before getting to it, thank you so much for following along this season, I hope it was profitable. Now let's get to the best bets for the biggest game of the entire WNBA season. Of course, monitor any news that may come out.
Last Time: 1-1 | Season: 21-15
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Sunday’s Best WNBA Finals Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Sabrina Ionescu 18+ Points (+105)
After dropping Game 4 to the Lynx 82-80, the Liberty sit as six-point favorites at home as they try to take the winner-take-all Game 5 of this thrilling series. This is the time stars are born. Breanna Stewart is tempting to take here but the Lynx did a great job at limiting her offensive prowess in game four, holding a lot of the focus.
This brings me to Sabrina Ionescu. Yes, she has had shooting struggles, going 0-for-5 from beyond the arc last game and 5-for-15 from the field. But shooters shoot and I can't imagine she will be limited at all tonight. These playoffs, Ionescu has attempted an average of 7.0 threes a game and over 18 points. To cap the series against Las Vegas she tallied 22 points and went off with 38 to send Atlanta home.
No one is due for more positive regression in this game than Ionescu. She's averaged 40% shooting from beyond the arc these playoffs and given the expected opportunity tonight, I can see her get to 20-plus points if you want to bet some alts. Yes, Breanna Stewart historically bounces back after tough outings but if Minnesota keeps up its defensive strategy, it should go back to Ionescu, and the expected increased opportunities should get Ionescu over her scoring line and help the Liberty earn a WNBA championship.
Minnesota Lynx +6.5 (-125)
How can this not be a close game? What a special moment this is going to be. New York went 16-4 at home in the regular season but across the season including the playoffs, they are 8-18-1 ATS in the Barclays Center.
In this series alone, we've seen back-and-forth games, major comebacks, and thrilling endings. Game 4 alone kept the game within six points either way the entire time. Game 1 was decided in overtime by one basket. I fully expect something similar tonight. Yes, New York is the better team and I expect them to pull it out here but their overlying metrics at home are surprisingly concerning.
In the second half of the season, the Liberty's offensive rating dropped all the way to ninth in the league. Three of the four games in this series have been decided by three points or less and don't be surprised to see that again tonight. And besides, it’s always fun to bet on something that would be an absolute delight to watch.