WNBA First Basket Scorers & Picks: Dream vs. Valkyries (Saturday)
Halloween is a day all about tricks and treats for young and old alike. The WNBA has given us all a heck of a treat with the league's first WNBA Finals Game 7. In this post, I’ll try to give y'all another treat for Halloween: my picks for WNBA First Basket props.
Here are my top picks for First Basket in tonight's decisive Game 7.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Saturday’s Best WNBA First Basket Scorers & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Atlanra Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries
- Rhyne Howard (ATL): +463
- Angel Reese (ATL): +483
- Gabby Williams (GSV): +493
- Alisha Gray (ATL): +620
- Tiffany Hayes (GSV): +730
- Veronica Burton (GSV): +870
- Jordin Canada (ATL): +900
WNBA First Basket Stats and Trends
Before making a pick, let's examine some stats:
- Game 1: Naz Hillmon (ATL) first possession, Allisha Gray first shot and first basket (layup).
- Game 2: Naz Hillmon (ATL) first possession, Allisha Gray first shot (blocked), Angel Reese second shot and first basket (second possession for ATL).
- Game 3: Naz Hillmon (ATL) first possession, Rhyne Howard first shot (missed), Angel Reese first basket (fifth shot, third ATL possession).
- Game 4: Veronica Burton (GSV) first possession, Tiffany Hayes first shot (missed), Alisha Gray first basket (free throw, first ATL possession).
- Game 5: Naz Hillmon (ATL) first possession, Jordin Canada first shot (missed), Kiah Stokes first basket (third shot, first GSV possession).
- Game 6: Naz Hillmon (ATL) first possession, Jordin Canada first shot (missed), Veronica Burton first basket (second shot, first GSV possession).
So, Atlanta has the first possession in every game but one, took the first shot in every game but one, and the team with the first possession made the first basket just once. Other trends to consider include:
- Rhyne Howard leads Atlanta with eight first baskets (54 starts); last October 9.
- Jordin Canada has made six; last September 30.
- Allisha Gray has made 5, including two in the WNBA Finals (Games 1 and 4).
- Gabby Williams and Cecilia Zandalasini have made eight first baskets.
- Williams last made one on September 30; Zandalasini last made one on September 27.
- Atlanta made the first basket in 26-of-54 games; Golden State made it in 29-of-54.
This is a tough one to call because there isn't a clear pattern or trend to guide us. Golden State made more first baskets in the regular season, but Atlanta has dominated the stat during the Finals. Atlanta has had the first possession more often than not, but that hasn't meant much.
So, if you plan on betting on this prop, I'd recommend Rhyne Howard at +463 if you want to bet on Atlanta, and Veronica Burton at +870 or Tiffany Hayes at +730 if you want to bet on Golden State. I'd lean towards Atlanta because they’ve been more aggressive at the start of games in the Finals and have made the first basket in four of six games.
I'd give Golden State some thought, but would go with Hayes or Burton because they have done so more recently than Williams.
Picks: Rhyne Howard (+463), Veronica Burton (+870) & Tiffany Hayes (+730)