WNBA First Basket Scorers & Picks: Friday (5/29)
We are well into the WNBA season, and it's shaping up to be a fun one with the expansion of teams and arguably the most talent the league has ever seen. WNBA first basket scorers are some of the best ways to get in on the action, as you don't have to sweat the entire game.
Of course, these are high-variance bets with long odds similar to first touchdown scorer bets in football, but that is why the odds allow for a nice payout when you get one right. With a large sample size, the risk is rewarded. Remember to shop around as odds vary widely across sportsbooks. Remember, these bets are for the first point scorer, so free throws also count.
Here are the best first basket bets for Friday, May 22nd.
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Friday's Best WNBA First Basket Scorers & Picks
Last Time: 0-3 | Season: 5-9 (+24.35 units)
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty
We start at the Barclays Center, where the 4-4 Liberty host the 2-6 Mercury as 5.5-point favorites. We did see this game on Wednesday with the Liberty winning 87-74, but New York has been struggling, losing three of their last four games. This is a great opportunity to build some momentum.
Jonquel Jones takes the tip for the Liberty and has won 80% of her home jumps, with New York winning the opening tip 62.5% of the time across her eight jumps this season. Once New York has the ball, the first basket has gone to a forward 80% of the time.
With the Liberty roster rotating a lot in the early days, that funnels right back to Breanna Stewart, who has scored a first basket against Phoenix multiple times in her career.
The Mercury are likely giving the tip to Natasha Mack, and she has been a quality interior defender this year, but Stewart’s mid-range game and post-up versatility create a clean look on the opening possession, no matter who is guarding her. The Mercury have allowed a forward to score the first basket 66.7% of the time this season.
The +450 odds are not the value I usually chase for these picks, but Stewart is the safest first basket play of the night. The Liberty has lost two of its last three at home, and Chris DeMarco is going to feed Stewart early to set the tone.
Pick: Breanna Stewart (+450 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics
The Sparks face the Mystics in a game where both teams are seeking to get above .500 on the season. Shakira Austin has taken the tip in all six of Washington’s games this season and has won all of them. The Mystics have scored the first basket in four of their six games so far, and Austin herself has secured the first bucket in two of those instances.
The Sparks will likely send out Dearica Hamby for the opening tip, and she is 2-3 as the jumper this season, while not winning a single tip on the road this year.
With Austin nearly guaranteed to win the tip and Washington running their first half-court set through her in the high post for an entry pass to herself or a kickout that comes right back, this is the highest-confidence play of the slate. The her +480 odds aren't great, but they still give us some good value.
Pick: Shakira Austin (+480 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Atlanta Dream vs. Portland Fire
Finally, out West, the Fire host the Dream as nearly 10-point underdogs at the Moda Center. The interesting piece for this market is the opening tip itself. Angel Reese has won five of her six jumps this season, while Luisa Geiselsoder has won only three of her eight tip-offs. Assume Atlanta takes first possession here.
The Dream typically runs their first set through Allisha Gray on the wing or feeds Reese in the post on a quick duck-in. The road first-basket rate for Atlanta is lower than I would like, but it's a small sample size, and the tip data here is too strong to ignore.
It also helps having Reese crash the offensive glass, as she leads the league in offensive rebound rate. Portland’s defense has graded out as the second-worst unit in the league through three weeks. A stop is not coming on the opening possession.
I am taking Reese at juiced odds because her tip control gets her into the action immediately. Even if the kickout goes to Gray, it usually comes right back inside. Geiselsoder is not stopping her in the paint.
Pick: Angel Reese (+450 at BetRivers)