WNBA First Basket Scorers & Picks: Friday (9/18)
The WNBA is back in action, and the playoffs are right around the corner as we head toward the end of the regular season. WNBA first basket scorers are one of the best ways to get in on the action, since you don't have to sweat the entire game.
Of course, these are high-variance bets with long odds, similar to first touchdown scorer bets in football, but that is why the odds offer a nice payout when you get one right. With a large sample size, the risk is rewarded. Remember to shop around as odds vary widely across sportsbooks. Remember, these bets are for the first point scorer, so free throws also count.
Last time out, we hit a longshot bet and are feeling good about getting positive on the season. Here are the best first basket bets for Friday, September 18th.
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Friday's Best WNBA First Basket Scorers & Bets
Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 8-56 (-3.85 units)
Indiana Fever vs. Toronto Tempo
We start north of the border as Indiana tries to move up in the standings, just a game behind the third-place Aces. The opening tip should be between Aliyah Boston and Isabelle Harrison. Boston has been solid, winning 60% of her tips, but Harrison has been unstoppable.
The Tempo frontcourt piece has won 80% of her tips, going 12-3 this season. For these longshot bets, you have to find alternate angles. Despite being the significantly worse offense, I'm rolling the dice on a Tempo player because I trust them to bring down the opening tip and get a chance at the first points.
As for who, you have some options. There is Harrison, who has the third-most first-shot attempts on the team, but I'm going a bit more down the board. Besides Marina Mabrey, who is out, Laura Juskaite has the most first baskets and the most first-shot attempts on the team.
Indiana’s defense ranks 10th this year, and over their last 10 games, they drop a spot. Juskaite is capable of finding an open look, and I do expect someone on the Tempo to secure the first point. Juskaite is a perfect value spot for just that.
Pick: Laura Juskaite (+750 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx
Next up, Minnesota hosts the New York Liberty as 6.5-point favorites. The Lynx are sitting comfortably in first but still haven't clinched that top spot, so they should be putting in all their available starters.
Jonquel Jones will take the opening tip for New York and leads the way with the shortest first-basket odds at +470. She has won 60% of her tips this year. For Minnesota, Natasha Howard will likely take the tip, but she's won just 20% of her tips this year. Minnesota, overall, puts up only 2% of first shots and has scored the first point in just 30% of games.
This is a clear opportunity to bet on the Liberty, even on the road. Besides Jones, Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu are among the Liberty players with the shortest odds of scoring the first bucket, and any of them is a fine option. I'm keeping it simple and going with Stewart. She has a high usage rate, can score in a variety of ways and leads the team in first-shot attempts.
You can also play the narrative game that New York needs to get Stewart going early, since they are still trying to get up to third in the standings with everyone bunched up.
Pick: Breanna Stewart (+490 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Portland Fire vs. Golden State Valkyries
Finally, the Portland Fire travel to face the Golden State Valkyries. Golden State could still secure the No. 1 overall seed, so there's a lot riding on this game. If there's any game to get weird, it would be this one. Neither Gabby Williams nor Kiah Stokes has won over 50% of their opening tips this season.
I'm going to keep this one simple, as the Valkyries are the much better team against a completely banged-up Portland Fire squad. Cecilia Zandalasini may have the shortest odds tonight, but she also leads the team in first points and first-shot attempts. Note that she's listed as questionable for tonight. You can pivot to Veronica Burton if she's out.
Pick: Cecilia Zandalasini (+456 at DraftKings Sportsbook)