WNBA First Basket Scorers & Picks: Saturday (5/9)
The WNBA season got underway last night with three exciting games and continues today with four more. Sportsbooks offer fans a range of different ways to bet on the game(s) of their choosing. But I am here to talk about one of the more challenging markets to predict - WNBA first basket scorers. Since the season is just getting underway, there is not much data available yet, so I'll be using data from last year.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Saturday’s Best WNBA First Basket Scorers & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
A’ja Wilson had the highest player efficiency rating in the league last season (33.3), the highest usage rate among players who competed in most of their team's games (30.3%) and an effective field-goal rate of 51.4%. She also attempted a league-high 16.5 shots per game.
There is not as much value in betting on Wilson as other players, but she's still a solid choice.
Kahleah Copper had the highest usage rate (27.7%) on the team, next to Satou Sabally, who is no longer with the team, and an effective field goal rate of 50.3%. Copper took nearly 13 attempts per game last season.
Picks: A’ja Wilson (+300)/Kahleah Copper (+550)
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx
Rhyne Howard is not the most efficient player on the Dream (18.3 personal efficiency rating, effective field-goal rate of 47.8%), but she takes 15+ shots a game. Anyone who takes that many shots will have a solid chance of making the first basket. As for Allisha Gray, she has a high effective field-goal rate of 54%, a 19.6 personal efficiency rating and a 22.9% usage rate.
I'm fading Minnesota players because with all the turnover on that roster and Napheesa Collier's dealing with an injury, you might as well flip a coin if you want to bet on a Lynx player to score first.
Picks: Allisha Gray (+700)/Rhyne Howard (+700)
Chicago Sky vs. Portland Fire
Kamilla Cardoso had a solid personal efficiency rating last season (19.8), an effective field-goal rate of 53%, took 10+ shots per game and had a usage rate of 23.6%.
Chicago was an offensively challenged team last season. So, I'm going to go with the betting favorite. As for Portland players, until we see how this team plays together, I don't feel comfortable recommending any of them.
Pick: Kamilla Cardoso (+340)