WNBA First Basket Scorers & Picks: Saturday (Sky vs. Wings)

WNBA first basket props are the ultimate high-risk/high-reward betting market. It's a challenging market to predict accurately. But there are patterns to everything, and I will try to identify what they are relative to this market this season. Since there is only one game on the schedule today, I'm going to try to dive a little deeper to see what I can figure out.

I'll be using odds from FanDuel Sportsbook in this post, but I recommend line shopping to make sure you get the most advantageous odds for your WNBA picks.

Chicago Sky at Dallas Wings

Top First-Basket Candidates:

• Kamilla Cardoso (+320)
• Ariel Atkins (+550)
• Arike Ogunbowale (+850)
• DiJonai Carrington (+1100)
• Maddy Siegrist (+1000)
• Kia Nurse (+1300)

Kamilla Cardoso is an obvious selection here. She has made the first shot twice for Chicago this season, including Thursday's game against Dallas; both times on the road. In the other three, Chicago did not score first, but Ariel Atkins recorded the team's first basket twice and Kia Nurse once.

Dallas has recorded the first shot in three of their five games with a different player doing it each time (Paige Bueckers, DiJonai Carrington, Nalyssa Smith). In their other two games, Arike Ogunbowale recorded the team's first shot once and Myisha Hines-Allen scored first in the other.

In Chicago's home games, the first basket made was a three-pointer each time. Teams are making three-pointers at a 43.8% clip against the Sky so far this season (league worst). It's even worse when they are at home (48.2%). Dallas is not big on shooting three-pointers, but we need to look there if we want to bet on a Dallas player.

Ogunbowale is averaging eight attempts a game this season and making 2.5 per game (31.3%). Maddy Siegrist is averaging one three-pointer for every 3.2 attempts (31.6%), and DiJonnai Carrington is averaging one three-pointer for every three attempts (33.3%).

As for Chicago, they don't shoot many threes either, but when they do, Kia Nurse tries the most (5.8 per) but makes just 1.4 per game (24.1%). Of the players with odds, Ariel Atkins has the highest percentage, 42.1%. However, since Chicago does not shoot three-pointers much or well, we should look at who is the most active down low - and that's Kamilla Cardoso (4.8 makes on 8.2 attempts per game from less than five feet).

Neither team is good from the three-point range. If Chicago takes the first shot, Cardoso will likely be in a good position for a quick second-chance bucket. If Dallas takes the first shot, I wouldn't be shocked to see Angel Reese pull down her first of many rebounds. Cardoso will score on the other end after Kia Nurse misses her first three-point attempt.

Pick: Kamilla Cardoso (+320)