WNBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (6/28)
Welcome back to another night of WNBA picks and predictions! We have two games on tap for Friday night, but both are intriguing matchups as we pinpoint our WNBA best bets. The Connecticut Sun host the Atlanta Dream while the Los Angeles Sparks take on the Phoenix Mercury. Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these top WNBA predictions and betting picks!
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Friday’s Best WNBA Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Atlanta Dream at Connecticut Sun (-8.5) | 153.5 O/U (-110/-110)
The early WNBA game tonight features the Connecticut Sun hosting the Atlanta Dream. The Sun are now 14-3 following Thursday's win to break a two-game losing streak. The Dream, meanwhile, are 6-9 and on a skid lately. After a solid start, Atlanta is just 2-7 over the past 9 games with three straight losses heading into this matchup.
Handicapping this game centers on a big mismatch on one end of the court. Atlanta has the worst offense in the WNBA while Connecticut boasts an elite-level defense. The Dream are last in points per game (75.9), offensive rating (95.0), field goal percentage (39.2%), and assists per game (18.5). They will struggle to score against the Sun's stifling defense allowing a league-low 71.7 PPG.
With Connecticut playing at the slowest pace in the WNBA, it allows the fewest shot attempts per game and holds opponents to 28.5% from three-point range (2nd in the league). When these teams faced off earlier this month, the Dream mustered only 50 points while shooting 28.4% from the field and 18.8% from three.
On the other end, Atlanta has just an average defense of its own, allowing 80.9 PPG (5th in WNBA). The Dream have struggled defensively more recently, though, giving up 84.5 PPG over the past six games. In turn, they are 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in the past six contests with that porous defense.
Though Connecticut only averages 80.1 PPG this season (9th in the league), it does boast the fourth-best offensive rating. The Sun can be more efficient scoring-wise in easier matchups to help them stretch out leads while the defense does its thing.
Atlanta is just 1-5 ATS as an underdog this year and 5-10 ATS overall. The Sun, meanwhile, are 6-3 ATS in their past eight games as favorites. Back Connecticut at home tonight to get a comfortable win - especially after barely surviving last night in overtime against Washington.
WNBA Pick: Connecticut Sun -8.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury (-9.5) | 166 O/U (-110/-110)
Our late tipoff tonight has the Phoenix Mercury hosting the Los Angeles Sparks in a Western Conference showdown. The Mercury are now 8-8 while the Sparks are sitting at 4-13. Let's dive into how to bet this one.
After a mini-losing streak in May, Phoenix has picked it up over the past month. It's 5-3 over the past eight games with the losses coming against three of the top teams in the WNBA (Minnesota, Las Vegas, and Seattle). That's been a theme for Phoenix this season with one of the toughest schedules so far. The Mercury are also 5-1 ATS over the past six games and 6-2 ATS since the start of June.
Much of Phoenix's success lately has come with Brittany Griner back in the fold. The veteran center is averaging 21.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game over the past five contests since returning full-time to the lineup. Griner's presence gives the Mercury a third top-end playmaker alongside Kahleah Copper (22.6 PPG) and Diana Taurasi (16.3 PPG).
The Sparks, on the other end, continue to slump. They've lost six straight games and are 2-9 over the past 11 contests. Los Angeles has the second-worst offense in the WNBA, averaging 77.9 PPG, and the third-worst defense, allowing 85.1 PPG. Overall, LA's -7.2 point differential is the second-lowest in the league - barely trailing Dallas' -7.4 differential.
Los Angeles is a rebuilding, young team and it's showing in the results on the court. The offense, in particular, lacks trusted scoring options outside of Dearica Hamby (17.8 PPG). She's the only double-digit scorer for LA as the supporting cast is inconsistent game-to-game. Second-overall pick Cameron Brink being out for the season has hurt the offense even more.
Take the Mercury to cover the spread at home tonight. They are 6-2 ATS at home this season and have covered as favorites in their last two instances. The Sparks, meanwhile, are 2-6 ATS as single-digit underdogs. In the first matchup between these teams, Phoenix won by 19 points at home to cover easily as 5-point favorites.
WNBA Pick: Phoenix Mercury -9.5 (-125)
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