WNBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (7/7)
We continue rolling through the WNBA season after the All-Stars were announced yesterday. I'll be coming at you twice weekly – Saturdays and Mondays – to give you my best bets and hopefully provide some winners. Last year in this series we had a profitable season and so far with the early return, we're keeping our head above water. Of course as a reminder, I must advise to shop around for the best props and keep track of lineup news. Staying on top of news is a great way to stay ahead of the market, and shopping around will help with seasonal ROI. Anyway, let’s get to the best bets for the day. Here are our top WNBA picks and predictions for Monday’s slate of games.
Monday's Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
Last Time: 1-1 | Season: 8-6 | Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Golden State Valkyries at Atlanta Dream WNBA Picks
After the Valkyries fought hard against the Minnesota Lynx, they are back in action as they travel to Atlanta to face the Dream. Atlanta sits as a near 7.0-point favorite, with the total set at 156.5 points.
Both teams have been impressive this year, jockeying for playoff position with their winning records. Allisha Gray has had a resurgent season, averaging a career-high 19 points a game, leading the Dream to the season they've had. Brittney Griner hasn't been as effective as they'd hoped but they are still 11-7 with the fourth-best offense in the league.
Golden State has done great work as an expansion team, in part due to its exceptional defense. Before Saturday, the Valkyries had won four of five and seven of their previous nine. The loss to the Lynx may have been a setback but they still fought against the best team in the W, and that's not nothing. Golden State will snag boards and force off shots but Atlanta's offense should be up for the challenge.
What stands out to me is the bump Atlanta gets at home. Their offense is still solid, but it's their defense that stands out with the biggest jump. On the flip side, Golden State takes a step back from the metrics, and are coming off short rest after more travel than Atlanta. The Dream are 10-5 in their last 15 games with only one loss by a significant amount. This is the first time these two teams have collided, but I simply think the Dream matchup is better for how good this Valkyries’ defense is. Beating Golden State from deep is how to go, and Rhyne Howard, Gray, and Nia Coffey all can get hot from deep. Golden State takes the most threes a game but Atlanta limits opponents’ threes at the second-highest clip. This, to me, feels like an Atlanta rout if you care to take some risks.
Pick: Dream -6.0 (-114)
Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury WNBA Picks
The other game of the night is not as exciting, with the Wings traveling to Phoenix to take on the Mercury. Phoenix sits as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 165.5 points, so there should at least be a lot more offense in this one.
This is coming off the two matching up last time with Dallas and their young guns earning a 98-89 win in Dallas. Paige Beuckers has continued to improve and Aziaha James went off for 28 last time out.
Phoenix doesn't benefit much from playing at home with their splits pretty even but Dallas' offense actually gets a bump on the road, going from seventh overall to fourth away from home. Both team have been playing better recently with both squads in the top four in net rating. Their deadly offense bolsters the Mercury, but Kahleah Copper is out tonight which might limit them a bit. Luckily, they have a lot of reinforcements while Arike Ogunbowale is likely out for Dallas.
Still, even with the injuries both teams are facing, these are more improved squads recently than the seasonal stats and how they are priced across sportsbooks. These are two offenses finding their rhythm and the mediocre Mercury defense I expect to have their hands full against the Wings squad that's building momentum. Give me points tonight.
Play: Over 164.5 Points (-110)