WNBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (6/17)
Tuesday’s WNBA slate is jam-packed with 12 teams in action across six games. With so many games on the schedule, it is a basketball fan’s dream. Let's deep dive into a few of these matchups and share our best WNBA bets for Tuesday, June 17th.
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Tuesday’s Best WNBA Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Connecticut Sun at Indiana Fever WNBA Picks
Caitlin Clark returned to the Fever lineup on Saturday and made her presence felt immediately. The Indiana guard scored 32 points on 7-of-14 shooting from deep and nearly recorded a triple-double with nine assists and eight rebounds. The Fever knocked off the previously undefeated Liberty after falling just short in her last game before injury.
The Fever are a legitimate contender with Clark in the lineup. Despite missing a few games, the Fever are fourth in Net Rating and Offensive Rating. They play at a feverish pace, and although their three-point prowess makes the highlight reels, no team in the league shoots more shots from within 10 feet than Indiana, with 50% of their field-goal attempts coming from that vicinity.
This is a bit of a disaster matchup for a Connecticut team that is having a season that is falling off the rails. The Sun allows almost half of their opponents' shots to come close to the basket, and they're making them at nearly a 60% clip. Connecticut can't combat the Fever's strengths.
With Clark out a few weeks ago, Indiana was an 11-point favorite. Connecticut pulled off the upset but shot 21% higher than their season average on threes. With Clark in the lineup, Indiana gets only 7.5 more points? I think we're getting some value here with one of the best teams in the league hosting perhaps the worst. Take the heavy favorite.
Pick: Fever -18.5 (-110)
Las Vegas Aces at Minnesota Lynx WNBA Picks
After their first defeat of the season last week, Minnesota bounced back with a healthy 101-78 win over the Sparks. This has been a common theme this season. Not the Lynx winning necessarily, but taking care of business against the bottom half teams in the WNBA.
With that win and -11.5 cover, the Lynx improved to 4-2 against the spread (ATS) against teams in the bottom half of Net Ratings. In those games, the Lynx have averaged a -10.5 spread with an average margin of victory of 13 points. It may be surprising for some WNBA fans to hear, but the Aces are a bottom-half team this year.
The Aces have stumbled out of the gate. They're just 5-5 straight up (SU) and 3-7 ATS. This hasn't been the result of a loaded early schedule either. Their strength of schedule trails just New York, Minnesota and Atlanta as one of the four easiest in the league. Their worrisome offense is the issue.
Last year, the Aces were an elite offensive club. They led the league in both effective field-goal rate (eFG%) and turnover rate. Although the turnover rate is still in the top two in the league, the eFG% has dropped into the territory of Chicago and Connecticut as one of the worst in the league.
The Aces will be without A'ja Wilson on Tuesday, which will be a huge blow. She leads the Aces in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. That's not the kind of player you can replace. Wilson’s status is already baked into this line, but against a Minnesota team that has feasted on the famished, I don't see the Aces keeping this one close enough to cover.
Pick: Lynx -12.5 (-110)
Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings WNBA Picks
For the 11th time in 11 games, the Valkyries will head into their contest as underdogs. They've found themselves pretty successful in this spot so far, going 5-5 SU and 7-3 ATS. On Tuesday, they enter as short underdogs to the 1-11 Dallas Wings.
Dallas looked good in Paige Bueckers’ return to the lineup on Friday night. Las Vegas needed a torrid rally in the fourth quarter to avoid an upset to the Wings. Dallas was able to score, like they have all season, sitting second in total points scored in the league. However, the defense fell apart again.
Golden State hasn't been a strong offensive team. They only shoot 39.8% from the field, and they're last in the league in three-point shooting (26.7%). Dallas will give up their share of makes, but can Golden State take advantage of the matchup? I don't think they will.
Defensively, the Valkyries are good at causing turnovers and getting defensive rebounds. But for Dallas, taking care of the ball and getting rebounds on their misses is a key part of their offense. This is an overall great matchup for the Wings and a big reason why they're small favorites despite their record. I like them to buck the Valkyries' trend of underdog success and get the cover at home.
Pick: Wings -3 (-110)