WNBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (Fever vs. Lynx)
The Commissioner's Cup championship is on the line Tuesday between the Fever and Lynx. Both teams have been impressive in group play for the tournament and will look to cap off that success with some mid-season hardware. Here are my best WNBA bets for the game.
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Tuesday’s Best WNBA Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx
The biggest headline going into this game is the availability of Fever star Caitlin Clark. She's missed some time with a groin injury and a quad injury recently. With all the missed time, the Fever haven't been able to build on their momentum from last season. However, when it came to Commissioner's Cup play, they've looked very impressive, going 4-1 with an average margin of victory of 9.6 points.
The Lynx took their loss in the WNBA Finals personally last year and have come out of the gates as the best team in the league. Their offense ranks second in offensive rating, while their defense is first in defensive rating. Their opponent’s effective field goal rate (eFG%) is a league-best 45.7%. The gap between them and second place is larger than the gap between second and sixth. This is a team that has been dominant, particularly at home, where they remain undefeated (7-0).
The matchup here is interesting because what the Fever love to do, get to the basket, the Lynx are susceptible to on the defensive end. Indiana shoots over 40% of their field-goal attempts from right at the basket as layups. Not only are the Lynx in the top half of the league in field-goal attempt rate allowed on layups, but their opponents are also shooting 67.1% on attempts from 0-3 feet from the basket. The Fever’s strategy of attacking the basket could work. Seattle and Washington, two teams with top-four field goal rates at the rim, handed the Lynx their two losses this season.
For Minnesota, a key piece to their offense will be if they can get three-point shots up. They shoot a league-best 36.9% from deep and make 9.3 attempts a game. However, Indiana is a team that doesn't allow their opponents to put up easy three-point looks. They're second in the league in percentage of three-pointers made that are assisted. This is the main driver of their three-pointers made mark of 27.5%, which is by far the best mark in the league.
These are two of the best three-point defenses in the league, and that is a key reason why both teams tend to play to the under this season despite impressive offenses. This game will be decided inside the three-point arc, and with the Commissioner's Cup on the line, we should see a playoff-level effort out of both teams. With Clark likely back in the lineup, I like the Fever to attack the Lynx at the basket and keep this one close while possibly pulling off the upset.
Picks: Under 165.5 Points (-110) & Fever +6.5 (-106)