WNBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (9/25)
The WNBA playoffs roll on with two more games on tap for Wednesday night. We have a pair of Game 2 matchups featuring the Mercury vs. Lynx and the Fever vs. Sun. Let’s dive into top WNBA picks for both games as you enjoy the postseason action. Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these top WNBA predictions and betting picks!
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Wednesday’s WNBA Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx (-8.5) - O/U 160.5 (-110/-110)
Wednesday's late-night WNBA playoffs matchup features Game 2 between the Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury. The Lynx won a high-scoring series opener on Sunday, 102-95.
While Phoenix covered as a 10-point underdog in Game 1, the deficit easily could've been larger. Minnesota led by 23 points in the first half and held a 14-point lead at halftime. The Lynx survived a big second-half push by the Mercury and still held on to win by seven.
Phoenix's shooting is bound to cool off in this second meeting. The Mercury shot 51.9% from three-point range (14-for-27) and 50.0% from the field in Game 1. During the regular season, they had just a 32.6% three-point rate (7th in WNBA). Meanwhile, the Lynx held opponents to a league-low percentage in both three-point shooting (30.1%) and FG shooting (41%).
The negative regression for Phoenix's offense is likely in Game 2 tonight. In the previous two regular season matchups against Minnesota, the Mercury shot 20.6% and 30.4% from three while scoring 60 and 76 points, respectively. Plus, Phoenix's 95 points scored in the opener is an outlier from what we've seen. It had put up 90+ points just once in the prior 15 games.
Minnesota was rolling teams on a regular basis heading into the playoffs. Since the Olympic break, the Lynx went 13-2 straight-up (SU) and 11-4 against the spread (ATS) in the final 15 games of the regular season. They also were 3-1 SU and ATS against Phoenix in the regular season with all three wins coming by 13+ points.
On the other hand, the Mercury have consistently struggled to compete with the top tier of the WNBA. During the regular season, they were 4-18 SU and 7-15 ATS against teams with a better record than them. That includes 12 straight losses when facing teams with a better record, dating back to June 22nd. In that stretch, 11 of the 12 losses came by 9+ points with an average margin of defeat of 16.5 PPG.
Take Minnesota to cover the spread in Game 2 tonight. We should see Phoenix's hot shooting regress while the Lynx continue dominating teams.
WNBA Pick: Minnesota Lynx -8.5 (-110)
Indiana Fever at Connecticut Sun (-6) - O/U 163.5 (-112/-108)
For our second WNBA playoffs pick today, let's go back to the early tipoff between the Indiana Fever and Connecticut Sun. In Game 1, the Sun handled the Fever with a 93-69 victory. Let's see how to bet on Wednesday night's second matchup in the series.
In the Game 1 win, Connecticut shot 50.0% from three-point range (9-for-18) as DeWanna Bonner (22 points) and Marina Mabry (27 points) led the scoring surge. The Sun's 93 points in the series opener may be well higher than their season-long 80.1 PPG average. However, the efficient offensive performance shouldn't be too surprising because it came against a shaky Indiana defense.
During the regular season, Indiana allowed 87.7 PPG (second-worst in WNBA) and a 36.1% opposing three-point percentage (also second-worst). Connecticut averaged 87.3 PPG in four matchups against the Fever this year.
Meanwhile, we should see Indiana bounce back offensively in this Game 2. Since the Olympic break, the Fever led the league in points per game (90.9), field-goal percentage (47.0%), and three-point shooting (39.9%) in the final month of the regular season. Their 69 points scored in Game 1 was their lowest single-game output since July 2nd.
A big reason for Indiana's poor offensive showing in the opener was Caitlin Clark's down game. She scored only 11 points while going 2-for-13 from three. We should get a much better shooting performance from Clark, who averaged 23.1 PPG and shot 37% from three over the past month heading into the playoffs.
Take the Over in this Game 2 as the Fever put up a better offensive showing and the Sun take advantage of a weak Indiana defense. The four regular season meetings between these squads averaged 165 total points with the Over hitting in two of those games.
WNBA Pick: Over 163.5 Total Points (-112)
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