WNBA Picks & Predictions: Aces vs. Liberty (Tuesday)
The WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Final takes place on Tuesday night, as the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty meet at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed or streamed on Amazon’s Prime Video. Let’s build our bankroll with our best WNBA picks and predictions for Tuesday, June 30th.
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Tuesday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Las Vegas Aces (+114) at New York Liberty (-135) | O/U 175.5 (-110/-110)
The Aces (14-5) and the Liberty (12-8) meet for the Commissioner’s Cup championship in Brooklyn at 8:00 p.m. ET.
This is a rematch of a game we just saw in the regular season last Tuesday night at Michelob ULTRA Arena at the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino in Las Vegas. The Liberty picked up an 87-76 victory over the Aces in Las Vegas, cashing as a 2.5-point underdog while hitting at plus-money (+114) on the moneyline as the Under (173.5) cashed.
New York has won four of the past five meetings in this series, while also going 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in that span. The Under has cashed in three straight meetings and four of the past five in the series, too.
In last Tuesday’s game, New York shot 46 percent (30-of-65) from the field, while connecting at a 42 percent (13-of-31) clip from behind the three-point line, and 88 percent (14-of-16) from the free-throw line. On the flip side, Las Vegas hit 43 percent (31-of-72) from the floor, while hitting 30 percent (8-of-27) from downtown, and just 75 percent (6-of-8) from the charity stripe. The Liberty were plus-2 in the rebounding department, although the Aces had nine steals, to just three for the Liberty. Las Vegas was plus-4 in turnover margin, and it had a 14-to-2 advantage in fast-break points.
Breanna Stewart was good for 20 points with six rebounds, four assists, and three blocks, while Sabrina Ionescu continues to make her way back to full health. She had 16 points, 10 rebounds, four assists, and a steal, while knocking down two 3-pointers. Ionescu continues to get more comfortable after missing a month due to a back injury.
Speaking of injuries, Aces superstar A’ja Wilson (ankle) is questionable for the final due to a right ankle injury. She suffered the injury in Sunday’s 107-99 win over the Chicago Sky. She was able to finish that game after leaving for treatment, and she had 30 points and 15 rebounds. There is a good chance she is able to play despite the 50-50 status. On the flip side, Satou Sabally (concussion) left last Tuesday’s meeting in Las Vegas after being hit in the face by an inadvertent elbow, and she has been in the concussion protocol since. She has been ruled out for Tuesday’s rematch.
Wilson had 16 points, nine rebounds, five assists, and four steals in Tuesday’s home loss to the Liberty. Jackie Young was good for a team-best 19 points with seven assists, four rebounds, a block and a 3-pointer, while Chelsea Gray was good for just 11 points, eight assists and five rebounds with two 3-pointers, two steals and a block.
The Aces are looking for their first Commissioner’s Cup banner since 2022, when they topped the Chicago Sky 93-83, as Gray earned MVP honors. The Aces lost in 2023 to the Liberty, 82-63, as Jonquel Jones took home MVP honors in that game. Both Las Vegas and New York are appearing in the Commissioner’s Cup Final for a WNBA-best third time in six seasons.
Las Vegas has won four of the past five games, but that lone loss was at home to New York. The Aces are 4-1 ATS in the past five games, too. The Under is 4-2 in the past six outings, although the Over has hit in the past two games.
New York suffered a 76-67 loss at Golden State on Sunday, failing to cover as the Under hit. The Liberty have dropped four of the past five games, while going just 1-5 ATS in the past six outings. The Over is 4-2 in the past six outings and 6-3 across the previous nine contests.
Based on New York’s dominance in this series, and the fact that Wilson might not play, or is likely not at 100 percent, let’s back the Liberty to get the job done. And, we’ll go low, with a heavier wager on the Under if Wilson is ruled out.
Picks: Liberty -2.5 (-108) & Under 175.5 Points (-110)