WNBA Picks & Predictions: Mercury vs. Sun (Wednesday)
There is only one game on the schedule when the Mercury takes on the Sun in Connecticut on Wednesday. The Sun have gotten off to a slow start, and six of their eight losses this year have come by double digits. Can they shake off what has been a rough go or will the Mercury continue their ascent up the WNBA rankings?
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Wednesday’s Best WNBA Picks & Bets: Mercury vs. Sun
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun WNBA Picks
The Sun have been bad to start the year, and their records of 2-8 straight up (SU) and 3-7 against the spread (ATS) are two of the worst marks in the league. Based on how badly they've been blown out in their losses, the Pythagorean win expectancy so far is zero. These blowouts have been so bad that they're 1-7 ATS in losses. They've averaged being +8.8-point underdogs while losing by an average margin of 22.4 points per game.
Phoenix is a fairly average team by most offensive and defensive metrics. Their Net Rating slots them just above Seattle for the fifth-best mark in the league. One area in which they excel is their ability to force turnovers. Their 18.6% turnover rate is by far the best in the league. They should be able to disrupt and frustrate a Connecticut team that turns the ball over nearly 15 times per game despite playing one of the slowest paces in the league.
This play is more about what Connecticut is incapable of as opposed to what Phoenix does well. Most teams should be heavy favorites against the Sun, and given their track record, they would fail to cover most games. For Phoenix, though, this is a great matchup for their defense. I'm not sure how the Sun will find a way to put up points consistently.
Unfortunately, I don't think the only game on the slate tonight will be very entertaining, unless you are a Mercury fan. I like them to cover this game and for their defense to shut down Connecticut enough that the total will not go over, regardless of how much they score themselves.
Picks: Mercury -12.5 (-110) & Under 156.5 Points (-110)