WNBA Picks & Predictions: Monday (7/6)
There are three games tonight, and below I've highlighted my best picks for each contest. The Valkyries should break out of their offensive funk against the Mystics, while I expect the Lynx to roll over the Sun. Then, I explain why the Sparks are being undervalued against a Storm team that has been horrible on the road this season. Here are the best WNBA picks for Monday, July 6th.
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Monday's Best WNBA Picks & Bets
(Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook)
Golden State Valkyries at Washington Mystics
The Mystics have the sixth-best scoring defense in the league, but they're still allowing 85.7 points per game. That's why I'm surprised to see this number so low for the Valkyries.
The Valkyries are averaging just 83 points per game, fourth-fewest in the WNBA. However, they're averaging 10.9 made three-pointers per game, the most in the league. That will be a huge difference-maker in a matchup against a defense allowing the sixth-most three-pointers per game.
Additionally, while the Valkyries have been held to fewer than 80 points in five of their last six games, they broke out of their funk with an 88-point performance against the Dream on July 4th. That's a great sign for the Valkyries heading into this matchup, as the Dream are allowing the fourth-fewest points in the league.
Pick: Valkyries Team Total Over 80.5 Points (-122)
Connecticut Sun at Minnesota Lynx
Though they're still 15-5, the Lynx have struggled considerably recently. They're just 2-2 in their last four games, with their last three victories coming by eight or fewer points. Yet, despite losing by 13 points to the Liberty on Friday, I fully expect the Lynx to get back to their dominant ways against the Sun tonight.
Connecticut has really struggled this season. They're just 4-16, and though they've won two of their last three games, they’re still averaging 7.1 fewer points per game than they allow.
Though the Sun have been relatively competitive over the last few weeks, losing by 10+ points just three times in their last 11 games, this is a team with seven double-digit losses this season.
And while the Sun actually have one of the better three-point defenses in the league, the Lynx have found most of their success this season inside the arc. This is simply a bad matchup for one of the league's worst teams.
Pick: Lynx -14.5 (-112)
Seattle Storm at Los Angeles Sparks
Not only have the Storm lost nine consecutive road games, but they haven't been all that competitive. Their last two losses were each by 20+ points, and that has been the case for five of their losses during their current streak. Only one of the Storm's losses during their last nine road contests was by single digits.
The Sparks are only 8-10, but they have won two of their last three games at home. While the Sparks don't play much defense, allowing the most points in the league, that shouldn't matter much against the WNBA's second-lowest scoring team.
When these two teams met on June 10th, the Sparks managed to sneak away with a five-point win despite the game being played in Seattle. Frankly, given how poorly the Storm have played on the road, it's shocking that this spread isn't Sparks -6.5 or -7.5.
Pick: Sparks -3.5 (-118)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.