WNBA Picks & Predictions: Saturday (5/9)
The WNBA is back, and Saturday gives us our second day of action with a lot of new teams, a shakeup of players and plenty of storylines. There are four games on this slate with a lot to consider. Caitlin Clark plays her first regular-season game in nearly 10 months, A’ja Wilson and the Aces get their championship rings and the Portland Fire play their first game in franchise history. I'll be here once a week to provide my top WNBA picks for the Saturday slate. Let's get to it.
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Saturday’s Best WNBA Picks
Last Time: 0-0 | Season: 0-0
Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever
We start with the Wings traveling to Indianapolis for Caitlin Clark’s return to the court. Indiana is favored by 5.5 points with the total set at 177.5. This is the marquee game of the slate with the Paige Bueckers-Caitlin Clark battle.
Indiana went under the total in 11 of their last 15 games to close 2025, including the playoffs and a high percentage of home games. The Fever play methodical half-court basketball when Clark runs the show. Additionally, the Fever’s defense ranked seventh in the league last year, up from 11th the year before. With another year together, I'm guessing the defense will be improved once again.
Dallas got better defensively, too. They added Jessica Shepard and Alanna Smith, who was the co-Defensive Player of the Year in 2025. Both came from the Lynx, the league’s best defense last year. Considering Dallas ranked 12th in defensive rating a year ago, that's an obviously massive upgrade. Smith and Aziaha James are both listed as probable, so we’re getting close to full strength on both sides.
There’s a tendency for season openers to play slowly. Players are working off rust, rotations are still being figured out and turnovers in the half-court limit possessions. Also, the excitement of the game is overinflating this line, which opened around 168 points, and it's only creeping up. The Under is the play here, and it’s not particularly close.
Pick: Under 177.5 Points (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
This WNBA Finals rematch tips off at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC. The Aces are around 8.5-point favorites with the total at 166.5. Las Vegas hosts ring night at T-Mobile Arena and then gets back in action to try and defend their win.
This time, I'm taking a player prop, and why fix what's not broken? The play here is A'ja Wilson’s points prop. Her 2025 average led the WNBA at nearly 24 points. She just won her fourth MVP, she’s chasing a three-peat and her opponent lost both Satou Sabally in free agency and Kathryn Westbeld to a torn ACL.
Phoenix’s primary defender on Wilson is now Natasha Mack, who is good but undersized at 6-foot-3. Wilson averaged 26 points per game against the Mercury in last year’s WNBA Finals, and I am playing into the narrative that the heightened opening tip will give her additional motivation.
The one risk is the back-to-back. Vegas plays in Los Angeles on Sunday, and Becky Hammon could pull her starters early if this gets out of hand. But that case probably means Wilson hit her over by the third quarter anyway. The BettingPros prop bet cheat sheet projects this line closer to 27, so there's still value here, even with juice.
Pick: A’ja Wilson Over 23.5 Points (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chicago Sky vs. Portland Fire
The nightcap tips off at 9:00 p.m. ET on NBA TV for the Portland Fire's first-ever WNBA game. The Sky are favored by 5.5 points with the total at 160.5. The Moda Center will be loud and emotional. That’s a real factor for an expansion team, but it doesn’t change the talent gap.
The Fire roster has zero players who have ever averaged double digits in scoring for a full WNBA season.
Bridget Carleton is arguably their best player, averaging 6.7 points per game last year in Minnesota. Carla Leite is talented but unproven. Karlie Samuelson and Emily Engstler are role players. Chicago counters with Skylar Diggins, Natasha Cloud, Courtney Vandersloot, DiJonai Carrington, Azura Stevens, Rickea Jackson, and Kamilla Cardoso.
The size mismatch is the part that should print. Cardoso is 6-foot-7, and there is nobody on Portland’s roster who can guard her. Carleton is 6-foot-1, and Engstler is 6-foot-1. The Sky already showed in the preseason what their offense can look like, dropping 104 points on Phoenix while shooting 51% from the field.
Yes, they went 0-2 in preseason. Yes, they don’t have Angel Reese, but the offense looked sharp, and the defense was the issue, which matters less against a Fire team that’s going to struggle to score, despite the pace.
The Valkyries were the best expansion debut team in WNBA history last year, and they finished with a defensive rating of 102.5, which was in the bottom four in the league. Portland will likely be worse than that early. Take the Sky to win by a healthy amount.
Pick: Sky -4.5 (-115 at BetMGM)