WNBA Picks & Predictions: Saturday (7/4)
Happy Fourth of July! There isn't a better holiday out there that offers a better day of betting than Independence Day, and today is no different. We have settled into the WNBA season, where teams are showing their identity as the storylines shape and the excitement plays out. There are two games on this slate with a lot to consider. The Valkyries go toe-to-toe with the Dream in Atlanta in what should be an exciting affair as our featured game of the evening.
It wasn't the best round of betting last time out, but riding the dips is just part of the game. I'll be here once a week to provide best bets for the Saturday slate. Let's get to it.
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Saturday’s Best Bets and Predictions
Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 11-9
Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream
Starting off with the aforementioned game of the day, the Valkyries and Dream get us kicked off the day at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. Atlanta sits as a 3.5-point favorite, with the total around 161.5 points.
If we're focusing on anything, it's Atlanta's four-game losing streak. After a four-game winning streak, it's quite the ebb and flow, and I'm going to continue selling the dip here. Specifically, I'm finding player props to fade. The Golden State defense has been the second best unit in the league this season. If you consider their last seven games, they've been just as good, while the Atlanta offense drops to ninth overall.
Angel Reese has done well in Atlanta, but this prop is too high. The Valkyries’ defense is solid, and, arguably more importantly, they rank as the slowest paced team in the entire league. Golden State's rebounding is above average here, too, so the simple lack of opportunity and matchup gives me reason to believe Angel Reese will be going under her props tonight.
Pick: Angel Reese Under 25.5 Pts + Reb (-104 Caesars)
Portland Fire vs. Seattle Storm
The only other game we have tonight is Portland visiting their neighbors to the north, the Seattle Storm. Seattle is 3.5 point favorites with a 170 point total in this game.
Going off the recent play trend as I did before, I'm a little surprised by this line. Seattle's offense has finally found its footing with the seventh best unit over their last seven games. In that same timeframe, Portland ranks last in defense and bottom five offensively. It's not like Seattle has been unstoppable of late, but they have won two of their last three games against the likes of New York and Atlanta.
Basically, I'm deciding if what we've seen recently out of Seattle is sustainable enough to take on what has been the worst defense over the last month of play. The Storm are a shocking 8-3 ATS this season, and Portland is 3-6 ATS on the road. I'm trusting the recent plays and riding the trend to take Seattle tonight.
Pick: Storm -3.5 points (-105 Bet MGM)