WNBA Picks & Predictions: Wings vs. Valkyries (Monday)
There is only one WNBA game today, as the Valkyries host the Wings at 10:00 p.m. ET. Below, I explain why I expect the Valkyries to dominate the Wings for the third time this season. Here are the best WNBA picks for Monday, August 17th.
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Monday's Best WNBA Picks & Bets
(Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook)
Dallas Wings at Golden State Valkyries
Valkyries -6.5 (-105)
The previous two meetings between these two teams haven't been close. When they met on August 7th, the Wings actually opened as 1.5-point favorites. Not only would the Valkyries end up as 1.5-point favorites before tip-off, but they also won the game by 18 points. The Valkyries also won the first meeting this season by 11 points.
These two teams now meet for the third time, and it's not just the prior meetings that have me liking the Valkyries. There's also the fact that the Valkyries are red-hot right now. They've won five consecutive games, with four of those victories coming by at least 11 points. Meanwhile, the Wings have lost six of their last eight games. Their last three losses have all been by 11+ points.
First Half: Valkyries -3.5 (-111)
Not to sound like a broken record, but it's really hard not to love the Valkyries heading into this game. And while I've already highlighted why they're going to win by at least seven points, I'm now going to explain why I love them to dominate the first half.
First off, the Valkyries have dominated the first half of each of the previous meetings. In August, they led by eight at the end of the first half. In the first meeting in June, they led by 11.
Second, the Valkyries are the best first-half team in the WNBA. This season, they have an average first-half point differential of +6.3. Only one other team has an average margin greater than +4.3. Meanwhile, the Wings are very average in the first half, with an average margin of +0.5. I honestly can't believe this spread is only 3.5 points.
Under 162.5 Points (-112)
For my final play, I'm actually going against what happened in the first two meetings and backing the under. Each of the first two games reached at least 170 points, but there are a few reasons I expect this to be a lower-scoring game.
To start, the Valkyries have the best scoring defense in the league. They're allowing just 76.9 points per game, which is 5.5 points per game fewer than any other team in the league.
The Wings' defense isn't too shabby either. They're allowing just 86.6 points per game, which is fifth-fewest in the league. The Valkyries have scored at least 90 points twice against the Wings, but this is an offense averaging just 83.5 points per game.
Then there is the fact that the Wings will be without Azzi Fudd. She is one of four Wings averaging double figures, and her absence removes a very dangerous three-point shooter from the floor. Without her on the court, the Wings will struggle to make threes against a defense that allows the third-fewest threes in the league.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.