WNBA Player Props & Bets: Saturday (7/4)
The WNBA is back with a two-game Saturday slate for the nation's birthday. There are plenty of opportunities for some WNBA player props today. Let's take a look at a few of the best prop bets for the day.
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Saturday’s Best WNBA Player Props & Bets
Gabby Williams Under 15.5 Points (-106 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
The WNBA slate gets started with a matchup between the Valkyries and the Dream in Atlanta. This will be the third matchup between these two teams in just the last 11 days. Golden State won the first two matchups. These were two defensive battles with the squads going under the number in both games.
Despite points being hard to come by and the slow pace, Gabby Williams managed 23 and 16 points, respectively. In the first game, Williams and Golden State shot well. She was 9-of-16 from the field, including three three-pointers. Despite getting to the free-throw line only once, Williams cruised over her 16.5-point mark. In game two, she needed six free throws to reach 16 points.
With back-to-back recent games of 16+ points against this team under her belt, sportsbooks are setting a trap by laying this line at 15.5. In the first game, Golden State shot 46.9% from deep on 32 attempts. Williams had five of those attempts and made three. As a team, the Valkyries attempted 25 free throws, well above the Dream’s season average (19.8 per game).
It isn't typical for the Dream to allow that many three-point or free-throw attempts to any opponent. Williams relied on those statistical outliers to reach 16+ points in the previous matchups with Atlanta. I'm going to trust the numbers and expect a less stellar performance on Saturday in a defensive grind.
Jade Melbourne 4+ Assists (-284 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
It's been a rough go of things defensively for the Portland Fire in their inaugural season. Their defensive rating rivals the Sparks’ as the worst in the league, and no team gives up more assists per game (23.7). This means any of the Storm are ripe for a strong assist outing, but one player in particular likely has their number mispriced.
Jade Melbourne has only played in nine games so far for the Storm, but over her last five she's averaged 5.2 assists per game. This includes an eight-assist performance against these same Fire back in the middle of June.
That game saw the Storm shoot 47.8% from the field, five percentage points above their season average, despite the loss. Against a Fire team with the league’s third-worst effective field-goal rate (eFG%), we should expect a similar performance.
The Fire allows opponents to shoot 57.4% from inside the arc with an assist on 67.2% of made baskets. The numbers show the Fire will allow a ton of assists. And although the Storm aren't typically a good shooting team, they are above average in their assist rate. This Portland team has been so putrid over the last few games, allowing 124 points in back-to-back contests.
There will be plenty of playmaking opportunities for this Seattle team, so it's a bit of pick-your-preference when it comes to assist overs. However, Melbourne's number isn't priced correctly and should be closer to 4.5-5. I'll back the lower number with some confidence to cap off my Independence Day WNBA prop card.