WNBA Player Props & Bets: Tuesday (9/16)
The Atlanta Dream and Las Vegas Aces each have the chance to wrap up their respective playoff series tonight. What should we expect from Naz Hillmon as she tries to lead her Dream past the Indiana Fever?
Then, in the late game, can A'ja Wilson take advantage of the weak rebounding of the Seattle Storm? Also, can Nneka Ogwumike keep the Storm's season alive after a bad performance in Game 1?
Here are the best WNBA player props and bets for Tuesday, September 16th.
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Tuesday’s Best WNBA Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Naz Hillmon Over 7.5 Rebounds (+110)
Naz Hillmon pulled down nine rebounds in Game 1 of this series. Yet, oddsmakers don't seem confident she can repeat the performance. Hillmon only averaged 6.2 rebounds per game this season, and she never grabbed more than six boards against the Fever until Sunday's game. However, Hillmon also played 25 or fewer minutes in each of her games against the Fever this season.
Since July 29th, Hillmon has played at least 30 minutes in 15 out of 20 games. Her role with the Dream has increased, and so has her production. In that 20-game span, she pulled down at least eight rebounds in 11 contests. The Fever allowed the fourth-fewest rebounds per game during the regular season, but the Dream finished the year with the most boards. The physicality of Hillmon and the Dream will win out in this game, as Hillmon puts together another solid performance and clears this over.
A'ja Wilson Under 10.5 Rebounds (+110)
A’ja Wilson has grabbed more than 10 rebounds in two of her five games against the Storm this season, but the price for this over is way too high. Sportsbooks are asking as much as -146 for Wilson to record at least 11 rebounds, after she only grabbed eight in Game 1 of this series. If Wilson's season average was higher than this total, maybe I'd stay away, but she averaged 10.2 boards throughout the regular season, which leads me to believe there is a lot of value in taking her under.
The Storm allowed the most rebounds during the regular season, but Wilson still managed seven or fewer rebounds against them in two of her games. Most alarming is that she played 35 minutes in one of those contests, which was almost four minutes more than her season average. On the road, the Aces are unlikely to dominate like they did in Game 1, but even if Wilson plays five minutes more than she did in the series opener, the value is in taking her to record fewer than 10.5 rebounds.
Nneka Ogwumike Over 16.5 Points (-113)
Nneka Ogwumike had a rough Game 1. After averaging 18.3 points per game during the regular season, she managed just 11 points and put up only 10 shots. The performance marked the third time this season she scored 12 or fewer points against the Aces.
That said, Ogwumike also has two 20-point games against the Aces this season. In one of those contests, she dropped 23 points on 10-of-15 shooting, and in the other, she dropped 25 on 11-of-16 shooting. The Storm dominated Game 1, but with the series returning to Las Vegas, I expect the Storm to make a much more concerted effort to get their leading scorer involved in this game.
Additionally, Ogwumike only played 27 minutes in Game 1 because it was a blowout. With the season on the line, she's very likely to play more than her season average of 30.9 minutes, which means more opportunities for her.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.