Women’s College Basketball Futures: National Championship Predictions
With the regions decided, we are left with just one NCAA Women’s College Basketball futures market - the most important one - the National Championship. With just four teams left, a good argument could be made for all four teams, but that doesn't mean they are all good bets.
Let's take a hard look at all four teams and gauge whether there is value in betting on them.
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Women’s College Basketball Futures: National Championship Odds
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
UConn (-150)
With the preseason favorite to win the John R. Wooden Award (Paige Bueckers) leading the way, big things were expected of the UConn Huskies this season. However, with losses to Notre Dame, USC and Tennessee, it was hard to justify putting them in the National Championship conversation. Not that they weren't worthy, but they just didn't compare with USC, UCLA and South Carolina - until they did.
An 87-58 thumping of South Carolina late in the regular season made bettors and fans take notice. Then they came into the NCAA Tournament and embarrassed Arkansas State (103-34), crushed South Dakota State (91-57), handled Oklahoma (82-59) and took down the No. 1 seed in their bracket (USC).
UConn is a prime example of a team and its superstar (Bueckers) playing their best basketball when it matters most. Does betting on UConn to win the National Championship have value? No, not at minus odds. But if you are OK with risking $150 to win $100, take the bet.
South Carolina (+250)
With the talent and depth on this roster, not to mention the experience at this stage of the season, no one would blame you for putting money on South Carolina. After all, they won the last two National Championships.
The late-season losses are concerning. But they made up for the loss to Texas by crushing them in the SEC Championship game. It would have been nice to have seen them make a more dominant run in the tournament, but they could have easily lost to Maryland or Duke.
They didn't because champions find a way. Now they face a Texas team they've defeated already standing in their way (the Gamecocks are 4.5-point favorites). Does this bet have value? Eh. I don't hate it. If South Carolina is in the NCAA Championship game, they'll have an excellent shot of winning against anyone.
But will they get there? That remains to be seen. They've been prone to slow starts in this tournament. If they get off to a slow start against Texas, it likely won’t end well.
Texas (+700)
I've been ready to write the Longhorns off since the second round because they have been underperforming on offense since then. Despite their lackluster performance on the offensive end of the court, they have continued to win games.
Because defense wins championships, right?
Yes, they were crushed the last time they faced South Carolina, but they have beaten the Gamecocks. They could certainly do so again, especially if South Carolina gets off to a slow start again. Does this bet have value? Yes. Texas can beat South Carolina. If they do, their odds will drop significantly. UConn or UCLA will be challenging, but not impossible to beat. Yeah, there's value here.
To be honest, though, I wouldn't bet on Texas without the protection of a no-sweat bet or some other kind of bet insurance.
UCLA (+750)
When I first saw their odds following the Elite Eight, I was a bit taken aback to see the Bruins with the longest odds among the remaining four teams. After all, they were the No. 1 team in the country for most of the regular season, have only lost two games and have played well throughout the NCAA Tournament.
What gives? Why the disrespect?
The answer is easy: They play UConn in the Final Four. The Huskies are easily playing the best basketball of the four teams left. Paige Bueckers looks like someone determined to win a National Championship. Is there value in the Bruins’ title odds? Yes. Yes, there is.
At +750, they have an 11.76% chance of winning the National Championship. UCLA has a better than 11.76% chance of winning. Making it past UConn will be tough, but not impossible. Whether they face Texas or South Carolina, I like their chances.