Women’s College Basketball Picks & Predictions: USC vs. UCLA (Saturday)
The No. 2-ranked UCLA Bruins will try to avenge their only loss of the season tonight when they host the No. 4-ranked USC Trojans. This battle between two women's college basketball titans is scheduled to get underway at 9:00 p.m. ET with coverage on Fox. Both teams have gone undefeated since their last meeting on February 14th.
Despite winning that game by 11, the Trojans are 4.5-point underdogs for today’s contest.
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USC vs. UCLA Betting Preview
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Details
- Betting Line: UCLA -4.5 (-112) | O/U 140.5 (-110/-110)
- Location: Pauley Pavilion in Los Angeles, CA
- Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Coverage: Fox
- Last Meeting: February 14, 2025 - USC won 71-60
Overview
The Bruins did just what you'd want them to do following their loss to the Trojans - they got back to their winning ways, starting with a 75-69 win over No. 22-ranked Michigan State, followed by a more convincing win over Illinois, 70-55. They also escaped with a two-point win over Iowa (67-65).
But then they crushed their last opponent, Wisconsin, on Wednesday by thirty, 91-61. Lauren Betts led the way in the last three games with 22, 22 and 26 points. She recorded a double-double against USC on February 14th with 18 points and 13 rebounds.
However, while they only scored 60 points in that game, well below their season average of 79.2 points per game, the problem was more of a defensive one. To be more precise, Trojans guard JuJu Watkins. was the issue. Watkins accounted for over half of USC's point total (38).
The key difference was her three-point shooting. She has averaged 32.7% from behind the arc during her USC career. UCLA has the third-best perimeter defense in the conference, holding teams to 28.5% this season. But Watkins went off, going 6-of-9 from three-point range. Watkins has since come back down to Earth, making just five combined three-pointers in her last three games.
UCLA tightened up on the perimeter in their four games since the loss to USC, giving up no more than six to any team and three to a single player. The Bruins will, of course, need to solve their own scoring problems to get the win this time around. While they are not a big three-point shooting team, they only hit 2-of-13 attempts against USC last time out.
Trends
- UCLA is 19-8 vs. USC at home but has lost the last two.
- USC is enjoying a three-game win streak vs. UCLA; the Bruins had won the previous nine meetings.
- USC has won the last three vs. UCLA but trails in the series 53-57 (since the 1971-72 season).
- UCLA has won nine of the last 12 games between the two.
Bottom Line
Three-point shooting appeared to be the key to the game for the Trojans in the previous meeting, with Watkins shooting lights out against one of the stingier perimeter defenses in the country.
UCLA will likely do what it takes to ensure she does not have a repeat performance. If they can stop Watkins, they can beat UCLA; the rest of the team only accounted for nine baskets in the last meeting.
I lean towards UCLA -4.5, but I think the under is a better bet.
Pick: Under 140.5 Points (-110)
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