XFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 9 (2023)
Motivation might be an issue for one of the two teams playing in Sunday’s first XFL contest, making the underdog an attractive bet. In the last game of the week, there are playoff implications and two talented offenses that could produce fireworks.
XFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 9 (2023)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
DC Defenders vs. Arlington Renegades
The Defenders already punched their ticket to the postseason last week and DC can clinch home-field advantage with a win or a St. Louis loss later Sunday afternoon. Fortunately, they won’t know the result of that contest when they play.
Still, the Defenders might scale back the usage of their workhorse running back, Abram Smith. It makes strategic sense to cede some touches to others to keep him fresh for the playoffs. In addition, the Defenders have only won three matchups by a wider margin than this game’s spread of 8.5 points. Their average final score margin is plus 6.9 points, and the median is plus 7.0 points.
The Renegades haven’t clinched their playoff berth yet. Many of their games have been close this year, and they’ve been beaten by more than 8.5 points only three times. Sadly, the 4-4 Renegades have a negative point differential, resulting in an average scoring margin of negative 3.8 points and a median of negative 2.5 points. I won’t go so far as calling for an upset, however Arlington is good enough to keep it within 8.5 points. So, take the points with the underdog.
Pick: Arlington Renegades +8.5 Points (-110)
St. Louis Battlehawks vs. Seattle Sea Dragons
The Battlehawks won the XFL’s first overtime game, and the Sea Dragons lost a heartbreaker in Week 8. Seattle needs a win to even their record with St. Louis’s and give themselves a chance at the playoffs.
St. Louis traveled to Seattle on a short week in Week 2 and defeated them 20-18 on a Thursday night. This time, the Sea Dragons must play in front of St. Louis’s rowdy crowd. With a whole week of preparation, both offenses should have a better showing than in the first battle.
The Battlehawks have averaged 23.0 points per game this season, and the Sea Dragons averaged 23.1. The defenses have held their opponents under 20.0 points per game. However, their scoring defense has been aided by suffocating the league’s weakest opponents. St. Louis allowed an average of 23.75 points per game to DC, Houston, and Seattle, and Seattle coughed up an average of 22.5 points per game to DC, Houston and St. Louis.
Moreover, Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades the Sea Dragons as the second-best offense and the Battlehawks as the third-best offense in the XFL. Conversely, they grade them as the fifth-best and fourth-best defense, respectively. Their offenses are both better than the defenses and as a result, I expect these North Division foes to have a shootout on Sunday afternoon and exceed 46.0 points.
Pick: Over 46.0 Points (-110)
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.