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XFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Last week was arguably the most competitive week of the XFL season. All four games were decided by eight points or fewer. Furthermore, two of last week’s wins were by three or fewer points. More importantly, the Houston Roughnecks got kicked from the undefeated ranks in Week 5. Let’s take a look at our top picks and predictions for Week 6 of the XFL.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:

Best XFL Bets for Week 6

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Seattle Sea Dragons vs. Orlando Guardians | Guardians +8.5 (-110)

After starting the year with two consecutive losses, the Sea Dragons have won three in a row. They got a seven-point win over the Roughnecks last week. However, their other two victories came over the Vegas Vipers and San Antonio Brahmas. Those two teams have a combined 2-8 record this season. More importantly, Seattle won those two games by an average margin of 6.5 points. Even in their two losses this year, the Sea Dragons have had tight matchups. Over the first five weeks this year, the Sea Dragons have had their games end with an average spread of only 5.2 points.

While the Guardians are the only winless team left this season, their opponents haven’t had easy victories of late. The two times they faced the Roughnecks, the Guardians lost by 21 points in Week 1 and 28 points in Week 4. Meanwhile, Orlando lost by 18 to the Brahmas in Week 2. However, the Guardians have played better lately. Over the past three weeks, two of their losses have been by a combined four points. The other was against Houston again.

The betting market overreacted to the Sea Dragons’ win over the Roughnecks last week. Yes, they have won three in a row, while the Guardians are winless. However, Seattle has won by an average of 6.7 points per game this season, and Orlando is beginning to find its way. While the Sea Dragons likely win their fourth consecutive game, expect the Guardians to cover the 8.5-point spread.

St. Louis Battlehawks vs. Vegas Vipers | Battlehawks -3 (-105)

Though the Defenders and Roughnecks are the clear-cut top two teams, the Battlehawks are arguably the best 3-2 team in the league. Their two losses this year have come against the Defenders, and both were by eight points or less. Meanwhile, St. Louis has won by an average of six points in their three victories this year. Furthermore, they had their best win of the year two weeks ago against the Arlington Renegades, winning 24-11.

On the other hand, the Vipers are coming off their first win this season in Week 5, a three-point victory at home over the winless Guardians. Now they face a St. Louis team that has played well. The Vipers have lost by an average of eight points per game this year. Furthermore, Vegas has lost two of their matchups by 12 or more points. While both contests were against the Defenders, bettors shouldn’t have much confidence in the Vipers.

This matchup isn’t the most exciting on paper. However, we should expect a somewhat easy win for St. Louis. The Battlehawks have played well except for their matchups against the Defenders. Meanwhile, the Vipers have one victory this year against the only winless team in the XFL. This matchup won’t be a blowout but expect the Battlehawks to cover the three-point spread on Saturday.

Arlington Renegades vs. San Antonio Brahmas

The Renegades won an ugly, low-scoring affair against the Brahmas in Week 5, defeating them 12-10. Now, Arlington will host their South Division foes in the rematch. The game’s final margin of just two points suggests the Renegades squeaked out the win.

However, while Arlington wasn’t dominant, they held advantages across the board. The Renegades gained 253 total yards at 4.1 yards per play, had 18 first downs, converted half of their third downs, committed seven penalties and forced three turnovers. Meanwhile, the Brahmas mustered 181 total yards at 3.6 yards per play, had 13 first downs, converted only 20.0% of their third downs, committed seven penalties and forced only one turnover.

Additionally, Pro Football Focus (PFF) graded the Renegades ahead of the Brahmas in overall grade and defense. The Brahmas have a higher PFF grade on offense than the Renegades, though. Unfortunately, San Antonio’s offense had scored just 29 points in their previous three games combined, and changing the offensive coordinator before last week’s game didn’t turn things around. Moreover, Reid Sinnett flashed some potential before leaving the game with an injury. Sinnett will miss the rest of the year with a broken foot, and Jack Coan had only seven completions for 42 yards and two interceptions on 15 attempts last week after relieving Sinnett.

Betting on the under for 33.0 points is compelling. Yet, taking last week’s victor at home in the rematch is a more exciting selection at a palatable -165 moneyline.

Pick: Arlington Renegades Moneyline (-165)

Houston Roughnecks at DC Defenders

The Roughnecks lost their first game of the year last Thursday night in Seattle against the surging Sea Dragons. Fortunately, they’ll have a long layoff before playing Monday night against the undefeated Defenders. The break can be a faux bye for the Roughnecks before facing the ground-and-pound Defenders.

The Defenders have attempted the fewest passes (109) and the most rushes (188) in the XFL. Will that be a recipe for success this week against the Roughnecks? It might not be. Houston’s allowed only 309 rushing yards at 3.55 yards per carry and one touchdown to non-quarterbacks this year. In addition, PFF grades the Roughnecks as the third-best run defense and the best overall defense.

On the flip side, DC has allowed the most passing yards (1,222) in the XFL, and the Roughnecks are a pass-happy team. Houston’s attempted the second-most passes (187) in the league. The expression styles make fights is often used in combat sports, such as boxing and mixed martial arts. Yet, it’s apt for this football game. The well-rested Roughnecks are PFF’s highest-graded club and have the best point differential, outscoring their opponents by 60 points. The Defenders have outscored their opponents by 44 points. DC’s home-field advantage won’t make it an easy assignment for the Roughnecks, but Houston appears to be the superior team. It was tempting to take the 2.5 points, but betting them as outright winners at a plus line was too compelling to pass up.

Pick: Houston Roughnecks Moneyline (+125)

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.


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