2019 Camping World Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Iowa State Cyclones Odds & Game Pick

The #15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on the Iowa State Cyclones in the Camping World Bowl. This is the first-ever meeting between the schools, as both are looking for a win to carry momentum into the offseason. Notre Dame is 18-19 in their history in bowl games, while Iowa State is 4-10. 

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Details

• Opening Line: Notre Dame -3.5 (at Fanduel)
• Current Line: Notre Dame -3.5
• O/U: 54.5 (opened at 57)
• Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
• Start Time: 12:00 PM ET- December 28th, 2019

Overview

At 10-2, Notre Dame's season can be looked at a number of ways, depending on who you ask. Head coach Brian Kelly secured his fourth ten-win season. He joins Knute Rockne, Ara Parseghian, and Lou Holtz as the only coaches in school history with at least three. However, after making the College Football Playoff last year, Notre Dame had their sights on returning. Their hopes were derailed in losses in their two biggest games of the season. They fought valiantly in a 23-17 loss at #3 Georgia but were annihilated in Ann Arbor 45-14 by #19 Michigan. They beat three teams that finished in the top 25 of the final CFP rankings (#22 USC, #23 Navy, #24 Virginia). In addition, Notre Dame is on a five-game winning streak, beating their opponents by an average of 25.6 PPG. 

Fighting Irish quarterback Ian Book had a great finish to the season. In the final three games, he threw 12 touchdowns and no interceptions. Book is the first quarterback in school history to throw for 2,500 yards, run for more than 500 yards, and throw at least 30 touchdown passes. His main target is receiver Chase Claypool, whose 12 touchdowns are double the next highest total. Heading into this game, the Irish are a bit banged up. Star defensive linemen Julian Okwara and Daelin Hayes suffered season-ending injuries. They will also possibly be without two starters on the offensive line. Robert Hainsey suffered a season-ending ankle injury while Tommy Kraemer is questionable with a sprained MCL.

Iowa State has been to two bowls under head coach Matt Campbell. They are 1-1, and the two games were decided by three total points. The Cyclones enter the Camping World Bowl at 7-5. However, just one of their losses came by more than seven points. Their biggest win was a 23-21 home win over then #19 Texas. They were also a two-point conversion away from knocking off playoff-bound Oklahoma in Norman. 

The Cyclones are led by quarterback Brock Purdy who has thrown for 3,760 yards and 27 touchdowns. Purdy is also a threat on the ground, as his 265 rushing yards rank second on the team. Iowa State's rushing attack ranked 9th out of 10 Big 12 teams at 140.3 YPG, but freshman running back Breece Hall showed signs of brilliance. He had four 100-yard rushing games, including one of his best games against Oklahoma. 

Trends

• Notre Dame is 2-5 ATS in their past seven bowl games
• Notre Dame is 5-4 SU in their past nine bowl games, after going 1-10 SU prior to that
• Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
• Iowa State is 13-3 ATS in their past 16 games as an underdog. In those games, they have won six times SU. 
• Cyclones are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog.
• Cyclones are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Under is 5-1 in Fighting Irish last 6 neutral site games.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Cyclones last 5 bowl games as an underdog.
• Under is 9-2-1 in Cyclones last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.

Bottom Line 

Often times when picking bowl games, bettors are successful when analyzing which team is more motivated to play. Notre Dame is disappointed that they were not invited to play in one of the New Year's Six bowls. Instead, their reward is taking on a seven-win Iowa State team that doesn't possess much of a storied history. Meanwhile, the Cyclones will likely treat this game as their Super Bowl as it is not often they have the opportunity to take on a prestigious school like Notre Dame. Iowa State is good in the underdog role, as both times they have been an underdog they lost by one point (vs. Iowa, at Oklahoma). Head coach Matt Campbell likely has had the full attention of his football team the last month, as a win over the Fighting Irish would do wonders for their off-season momentum. 

Notre Dame does a great job of not beating themselves, as they rank third in the country in turnover margin. Brock Purdy has nine interceptions on the year and will have to do a good job taking care of the football. Purdy will arguably be one of the best quarterbacks the Irish have seen all year, outside of Jake Fromm (Georgia). The Fighting Irish have allowed just one 300-yard passer all year but struggled when they faced a quality dual-threat quarterback. Though they were able to contain Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins on the ground, they were so focused on his running ability that they allowed him to throw for 334 yards and two touchdowns. Virginia outgained the Irish that day, but Notre Dame won 35-20 on the strength of their defense who forced five turnovers.

Brock Purdy should be able to find success against a banged-up Notre Dame defense, provided he can take care of the ball. The Cyclones depth at wide receiver with Deshaunte Jones, Tarique Milton, and La'Michael Pettway will be a lot for the Irish secondary to handle. Iowa State is not afraid of the big stage and proved they can go toe-to-toe with the best in college football in tough road environments.

Lastly, it is anyone's guess what the impact of Notre Dame offensive coordinator Chip Long's absence will be in this game. Long and Notre Dame parted ways at the end of the regular season, and Brian Kelly has not revealed who is taking over play-calling duties. The Notre Dame offense will possibly be compromised, and this is one of the biggest games in Iowa State history. For all of these reasons, this has the makings of an upset. Look for Iowa State to hold up in the trenches and to be able to move the ball with success. Even if the Cyclones do not win, this will surely be a tight contest late.

Pick: Iowa State +3.5

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.