Favorites nearly made history in Week 12, going 12-4 SU and ATS. Not since Week 12 of 2017 had 12 or more favorites covered the spread, but no week in the Super Bowl era had favorites cover 13 games. Given such a chalky week, we were still spot on with our survivor pool analysis last week, identifying three safe picks that all won by at least three touchdowns, one risky play (the Minnesota Vikings) that lost outright, and a contrarian play on the Tennessee Titans that paid huge dividends given that they are not projected to be favored in any of their six remaining games.

We are getting into the time when many of the larger survivor pools require two picks of their contestants, so you may start seeing some unfamiliar names in this survivor pool advice column.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

#CircaSurvivor is down to just 80 live entries after another 32 eliminated on Vikings on #MondayNightFootball #MNF #NFL; 69 total eliminated in "Week 12b" with 36 also on Patriots & 1 on Chargers; @CircaSports @DerekJStevens @MikePalmCirca @JeffreyBenson12 https://t.co/NkiGkPddA1

— Dave Tuley (@ViewFromVegas) November 28, 2023

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 13 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

NFL Survivor Pool Advice

TEAM	ODDS
Miami Dolphins	-480
Dallas Cowboys	-430
Jacksonville Jaguars	-400
Kansas City Chiefs	-290
Los Angeles Chargers	-260
Pittsburgh Steelers	-255
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-240
Detroit Lions	-198
Los Angeles Rams	-194
Houston Texans	-180
San Francisco 49ers	-146
Atlanta Falcons	-144
Indianapolis Colts	-126

Safest Picks

Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers

Of the Miami Dolphins’ eight wins, just one has come against a team currently with a winning record, and three wins have come against the two worst teams (Patriots and Panthers) in each conference. However, while they are building a reputation of a team that still needs to prove something to be classified as a legitimate contender, that should not matter against a Washington Commanders team coming off their worst loss (35 points) since Week 16 of 2021, and who just fired their defensive coordinator. Miami’s offense also looked impressive in converting 11 of 16 third downs and running for 167 yards against one of the best defenses in football, the New York Jets, last week.

Survivor pool contestants catch a break with being able to use the Jacksonville Jaguars at home against the Cincinnati Bengals in a game that they would normally otherwise not have used, given Joe Burrow’s injury. Jacksonville has had its best start (8-3) since 2017 and has won its first five road games for the first time since 1999. Trevor Lawrence is coming off his second career game with 350-plus passing yards, and he had four completions of 40 or more yards (tied for the most in a game in team history). In addition, the Jaguars had 210 yards after the catch, their most in a game since 2018. Meanwhile, the Bengals became the first team outgained by the Pittsburgh Steelers this season and are now 1-6 against AFC opponents this year.

The Pittsburgh Steelers looked rejuvenated in their first game without offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Pittsburgh had zero games with 400-plus yards in more than two seasons under Canada, and it snapped a 58-game streak without 400 total yards last week against Cincinnati (the streak was the fifth-longest by any team in the previous 50 seasons). While Pittsburgh’s one touchdown in four red zone drives is a concern, they may have found something with Pat Freiermuth, who had the most receiving yards by a Steelers tight end (120) since Jesse James in 2018. Now the Steelers face an Arizona Cardinals team that is off to their (2-10) since 1959 as the Chicago Cardinals and just suffered their sixth double-digit loss of the season.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams

The Dallas Cowboys are 5-0 at home this season and have out-scored opponents by a combined 145 points and won by 20 or more in each. In addition, quarterback Dak Prescott is playing the best football of his career, with 17 passing touchdowns in the last five games. However, we are still putting the Cowboys in the risky play section until they can consistently prove they can beat winning teams, as they are 2-2 against teams that are .500 or better when they play them and are 0-2 against teams currently over .500 this season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the Carolina Panthers in their first game without head coach Frank Reich, who was one of three Panthers coaches fired this week. Carolina is off to its third 1-10 start in franchise history and is averaging a league-worst 4.1 yards per play. In addition, among 30 qualified quarterbacks, Bryce Young ranks 26th in completion percentage (62%) and last in yards per dropback (4.2). However, Tampa Bay has lost six of seven games since starting 3-1, and Baker Mayfield has had multiple turnovers in back-to-back games. Plus, we have seen how a new head coach (Antonio Pierce) rejuvenated the Las Vegas Raiders instantly, so perhaps Chris Tabor can do the same as the Panthers’ interim coach.

The Los Angeles Rams have won consecutive games for the first time this season, and Matthew Stafford had his most passing touchdowns (four) since October 2021. However, the Rams have long dominated the Cardinals, finishing the season series sweep for the fifth time in seven seasons. Despite the Cleveland Browns being 2-3 and averaging 13.4 points per game without Deshaun Watson this season, they still have one of the most feared defenses in football, which could be enough to steal a road win.

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

Los Angeles Chargers

Picking the Los Angeles Chargers in any week of a survivor pool is enough to make one hold their breath, as they have lost five games by three or fewer points this season. And while they limp into this game against the New England Patriots at 4-7 and riding a three-game losing streak, the Patriots are off to their worst start (2-9) since 1993 and have averaged just 11.8 points per game during a four-game losing streak. In addition, Mac Jones is coming off his eighth career game with two or more interceptions (his third this season), and head coach Bill Belichick may have already lost his football team with him benching Jones multiple times this year. Thus, this contrarian play is more of a fade of New England than a confidence play in Los Angeles.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.