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2020 3M Open Betting Guide (PGA)

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The newly crowned world number one, Jon Rahm (22/1), dominated the field last week at the Memorial Tournament to win his fourth career PGA Tour title. In some of the most challenging conditions that Muirfield Village has ever presented, Rahm finished nine under par to beat out Ryan Palmer by three strokes. The margin of victory seemed a bit closer than it should have been, as Rahm was assessed a controversial two-stroke penalty after his round was completed. Only nine players ended up finishing the tournament under par for the week.

Scoring should come easier this week as the PGA Tour heads to Blaine, Minnesota, for the 3M Open. This marks the second installment of the event, as it was promoted from the PGA Champions Tour in 2019. The reigning champion, Matthew Wolff, won his first career PGA title last year after shooting an impressive final score of 21-under. With plenty of wind in the forecast, we may not see a score that low this week. That said, you can expect to see plenty more birdies at TPC Twin Cities.

After a major-like field last week at the Memorial Tournament, the quality of competition tapers off tremendously at the 3M Open. Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, and Tommy Fleetwood are the cream of the crop this weekend. Fleetwood, the talented Englishman, will be making his first start since missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March.

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Course Preview

The 3M Open is played at TPC Twin Cities in northern Minneapolis. The gettable course design measures at 7,468 yards and will play as a Par 71. Golfers will see wide fairways with lots of water hazards in play. We can expect to see higher GIR numbers this week with longer than average Bentgrass greens. The three Par 5s are all above average in length, so Par-4 scoring will be factored in a bit more this week.

As mentioned above, this should once again be a birdie-fest, and we can expect many low scores. However, keep your eyes posted on the weather leading up to Thursday, as the winds are expected to pick up on the weekend and could create havoc on the course. Ball-striking will be crucial with plenty of water throughout the course, so players must hit plenty of fairways to avoid a big number.  As per usual, targeting golfers with above-average approach play will be key.

Key Stats

  • Birdie-or-better
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Ball-Striking
  • Performance on Bentgrass Greens
  • Par-4 Scoring

Best Outright Bet

Dustin Johnson: 11/1 on BetMGM
The highest-ranked golfer in the field and winner of the Travelers Championship a month ago, Dustin Johnson is the best golfer in the field. Despite Johnson’s two dreadful rounds of 80 at the Memorial last week, DJ has shown that he has a very short memory and can shake it off in a hurry. Johnson already has three top-10s in just eight events in 2020. This week has the makings of a birdie fest, as TPC Twin Cities always plays as a gettable track.

Johnson should be able to use his supreme off the tee game to his advantage this week. Driving distance and strong approach play are a solid combo to have at 3M Open. Matthew Wolff won last year by overpowering the course last year with his length and strong approach play. The field is very sub-par this week, and with Koepka, Fleetwood, and Finau all having their question marks heading in, Johnson looks like the safest bet.

Best Top-10 Bets

Sam Burns: 6/1 on BetMGM
Burns finished T7 here last year after shooting rounds of 66-66-72-64. While it’s hard to get excited after only one high finish at this course, Burns has been playing solid golf of late. He has finishes of T24, T30, and T17 in his last three events. As someone who plays very long off the tee and has an above-average putter, Burns should once again play well at a course where he has found prior success

Richy Werenski: 9/1 on BetMGM
Werenski rates out exceptionally well on Bentgrass surfaces where scoring is easy relative to par. In the last 36 rounds, according to Fantasy National, Werenski ranks third in strokes gained: total, seventh in ball-striking, fourth in approach, and ninth in putting. His recent form has also been great, as Werenski has made five straight cuts and has two top-25s. With this being the weakest field Werenski has been apart of in his last five events, a top-10 finish is surely in play.

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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.