2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets: Andrew Thomas Draft Position
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The 2020 NFL Draft is rapidly approaching, and that means the action is starting to pour in on the NFL Draft props. BetMGM has a wide variety of props to choose from, including the always intriguing draft position props. Today we will be taking a look at the Andrew Thomas draft position prop. The Thomas prop appears to have the most value of any of the offensive linemen props by virtue of being listed at 10.5, while Mekhi Becton sits at 8.5, and Jedrick Wills at 9.5. Let’s dig in.
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The Odds
2020 NFL Draft – Andrew Thomas draft position
Over 10.5 (-133)
Under 10.5 (+110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
The Player
Andrew Thomas (LT – Georgia)
Andrew Thomas is a talented left tackle from the Georgia Bulldogs. Widely considered the top offensive lineman in the 2020 NFL Draft class heading into the 2019 season, Thomas saw both Mekhi Becton and Jedrick Wills enter the conversation by the time the season wrapped up. Thomas is a mauler in the run game, who like most of the other offensive tackles in this class, still has some technique issues to clean up in pass protection. He is considered to have the highest floor as a left tackle but does not have as much upside as someone like Becton boasts.
Andrew Thomas has easy to reach Pro Bowl upside but could be an All-Pro in a few years time. He is a powerful blocker with good feet who projects as a plug and play blindside prospect. He has the makings of a high-quality franchise left tackle and would be a great addition to almost every NFL team. He would usually be a lock for the top 10, but the 2020 NFL Draft features a high number of elite-level defensive prospects and three offensive linemen with All-Pro level upside.
The Teams
Before we start analyzing individual team fits, it would be wise to eliminate the teams who appear to be dead set on addressing a position other than the offensive line. The Cincinnati Bengals at number one overall will be drafting a quarterback. Most of the world and the sportsbooks expect that quarterback to be Joe Burrow. The Miami Dolphins currently own the fifth overall pick and are also expected to be drafting a quarterback. As we will discuss below, whether or not they trade up to do so will have ramifications on props like this one. The Los Angeles Chargers are also expected to draft a first-round quarterback and have been eliminated from the discussion.
Washington (2nd overall)
Washington is expected to draft Ohio State edge rusher Chase Young if they keep the second overall pick. I say if because Washington is fielding offers for their pick. If Washington moves back far enough, Andrew Thomas will become an option. It is likely that they have Chase Young, Jeffrey Okudah, and Isaiah Simmons ranked above any of the offensive linemen in this class, so they will likely need to trade down to sixth overall or beyond for Thomas to be in play.
Detroit Lions (3rd overall)
The Detroit Lions are expected to target either Jeffrey Okudah or Derrick Brown with the third overall pick. With that being said, they are likely fielding a number of offers from teams looking to trade up to get into a position to draft either Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert. The Lions have to be considered one of the favorites to trade down from their pick. However, they may be waiting to see if Washington trades down, as standing pat at third overall may result in Chase Young falling to them if Washington indeed swings a trade. If the Lions trade down past fifth overall, and Okudah, Brown, Isaiah Simmons, and Young are all off the board, all of the offensive linemen at the top of the board should be in play. Andrew Thomas is the most pro-ready of the bunch, and also has the highest floor as a left tackle. He will be someone the Lions consider strongly if they trade down past sixth overall.
New York Giants (4th overall)
The New York Giants are where the offensive linemen are projected to start being real considerations. While Dave Gettleman has never drafted a first-round offensive lineman in his career as a general manager, this may be the year he bucks that trend. There are three to four offensive linemen with Pro Bowl upside or better, and the Giants are expected to have their ‘pick of the litter’. With that being said, based on Gettleman’s track record, it would be surprising if the Giants did not target the best defensive player available whether that be Chase Young, Isaiah Simmons, Derrick Brown, or Jeffrey Okudah. He may even decide to get crazy and draft someone like CeeDee Lamb. While this is where Andrew Thomas’ draft ceiling begins, it is not very likely that the Giants pull the trigger if they end up drafting out of the four spot.
Carolina Panthers (7th overall)
The Carolina Panthers should draft an offensive lineman. However, their recent moves suggest that they may be more interested in a guard, or a defensive player. They traded for Russell Okung, giving up star guard Trai Turner in the process. That move created a need. They saw 29-year-old future Hall of Fame linebacker Luke Kuechly announce his sudden retirement, throwing the middle linebacker position into the mix as a glaring need. Finally, star corner James Bradberry left in free agency to the New York Giants, creating a major need at corner. Suffice it to say that the Panthers, despite their need for a long term answer on the left side, will probably be comfortable with Okung, and 2019 second-round pick Greg Little as their bookends for this season. Thomas should be in play here, but may ultimately lose out to a defensive player.
Arizona Cardinals (8th overall)
The Arizona Cardinals are where the run on offensive linemen could begin. Arizona has a host of needs, but protecting franchise quarterback Kyler Murray should be a priority. With that being said, left tackle D.J. Humphries played well enough to earn a three-year deal this offseason, and may give the Cardinals enough of a rationale to pass on an offensive tackle in favor of a top defensive player. There is a high probability that one of Derrick Brown, Isaiah Simmons, or Jeffrey Okudah could still be available at eighth overall, players the Cardinals may be hard-pressed to pass on. Further muddying the waters, one would have to think that Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb would also be in play for head coach Kliff Kingsbury. The offensive line still makes the most sense for the Cardinals, but they may be more interested in Jedrick Wills or Tristan Wirfs due to their positional versatility.
Jacksonville Jaguars (9th overall)
Jacksonville could go in a number of directions with the ninth overall pick. If they keep the pick they will have options at wide receiver, defensive tackle, cornerback, and the offensive line. Left tackle makes a lot of sense for Jacksonville, as current left tackle Cam Robinson would likely be a better fit at guard. The Jaguars drafted right tackle Jawaan Taylor in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, which should all but rule out Tristan Wirfs from consideration here. Andrew Thomas could very well top the Jaguars board at left tackle, but Mekhi Becton and Jedrick Wills will also be in play here. Add in their other positional needs, and it is truly up in the air as to which direction the Jaguars may choose to go with the first of their two first-round picks.
Cleveland Browns (10th overall)
The Cleveland Browns are in dire need of a true left tackle. They have had guard Joel Bitonio playing left tackle for the past two seasons and could benefit greatly by moving him back inside. If the Browns do not go left tackle here it will be a major surprise. This puts Andrew Thomas, Mekhi Becton, Jedrick Wills, and possibly Tristan Wirfs in play for the Browns if still on the board. Jedrick Wills may be the best fit due to his positional versatility, but the Browns may be more comfortable with the upside of Andrew Thomas and Mekhi Becton as left tackles specifically. Thomas has a strong probability of being drafted by 10th overall.
Conclusion
Andrew Thomas’ draft position prop presents the most value as far as an under play is concerned. While there is no guarantee that any offensive linemen are drafted in the top seven, picks eight to 10 appear to be where we could see the first run at the position. 10.5 is a very fair number for a player some feel is the safest and most talented of the offensive line prospects in this class. The plus money is a bonus here, as the under would be the play even if the odds were reversed. Lock this one in as a potential two-unit play at BetMGM.
The pick: Under 10.5 (+110)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.