2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets: First Round Draft Totals by School
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including How to Choose a Sportsbook — or head to more advanced strategy — like Which Sports Are Most Profitable to Bet? — to learn more.
The 2020 NFL Draft is less than two weeks away. With each passing day, the anticipation for one the NFL’s biggest events continues to grow. This year’s draft will be held virtually, but that has not stopped fans and bettors alike from consuming all the draft content they can stomach. FanDuel has a variety of intriguing 2020 NFL Draft props to indulge in. Today we will discuss their first-round draft totals by school.
Check out our consensus odds for 2020 NFL Draft prop bets >>
Total LSU Players Drafted in the First Round: – 5.5 (o +176/u -230)
The candidates: Joe Burrow, K’Lavon Chaisson, Kristian Fulton, Grant Delpit, Justin Jefferson, Patrick Queen, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
The odds for this prop speaks volumes. Quarterback Joe Burrow is LSU’s only lock to go in the first round. Fresh off a historic Heisman winning campaign, he is expected to go number one overall to the Cincinnati Bengals.
K’Lavon Chaisson is a talented edge rusher who is expected to have a lot of suitors in the first round. He may get drafted at the tail end of Day 1, but it would be a major surprise if he was not off the board when the round wraps up.
Kristian Fulton is one of the top three or four cornerbacks in this draft class by most accounts, and he is widely expected to be a first-round pick. Much like with Chaisson, it would be a surprise if he did not get selected in the first. After that, it gets a little dicier.
Grant Delpit undoubtedly has first-round talent, but only one of Delpit or Xavier McKinney from Alabama is expected to be a first-round pick. In a less loaded draft class, we could pencil Delpit in as a first-rounder. In this class, we will have some intriguing drama.
Justin Jefferson raised his stock at the 2020 NFL Combine, especially with Tee Higgins not running, Laviska Shenault requiring surgery, and Jalen Reagor testing (or being timed) slower than expected. Patrick Queen shows up in about half of the first round mocks from various outlets, but he is no sure thing to get drafted on Day 1. He started the season as a backup but made a name for himself down the stretch, which culminated in the Defensive MVP award for the National Championship. Queen has a 50/50 chance, at best, to be drafted in the opening round.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a long shot to go in the first round. He will top at least one team’s draft board at the position, but it is widely expected that one of Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, or J.K. Dobbins hears their name called in the first round.
The under is the smarter play here. Even if Burrow, Chaisson, and Fulton are all considered locks, we still need three more players to be taken in Round 1. Jefferson should go in the first. Delpit may if the team that drafts a safety (if any) covets him more than McKinney.
Queen is the tougher one, as three middle linebackers going in the first round of such a deep draft simply may not happen. The true value in this prop, however, lies with the over. A +176 line implies a 36.2 percent chance of this prop hitting; the probability is likely slightly higher at about 40 percent. The Queen draft position prop sits at 25.5, with the juice sitting at -142 on the under, at FanDuel. This means that this prop comes down to whether you believe Delpit will be drafted in Round 1. If there is any plus money over to take from the first-round draft totals by school props, this is the one.
The pick: Over 5.5 (+176)
Total Alabama Players Drafted in the First Round: 5.5 (o -102/u -130)
The candidates: Tua Tagovailoa, Jerry Jeudy, Jedrick Wills, Henry Ruggs, Xavier McKinney, Trevon Diggs
Tua Tagovailoa has continued to prove his health in the weeks leading up to the 2020 NFL Draft, so he should be a lock for the top five. There is no concern about him slipping past the first round. Jerry Jeudy will also go in Round 1 with no questions asked. The most talented wide receiver in this class should be the first one off the board in the top 15. Jedrick Wills is another first-round lock from Alabama. An offensive lineman with a mean streak, he has a good chance to be the first offensive lineman selected.
Henry Ruggs is also a probably first-round pick. While he does not have the numbers to back up that status, he played in a better wide receiver room in college than he will ever see in the pros. He also has strong film and the type of game-changing speed that can instantly transform an offense.
This means that, similar to the LSU prop, this bet comes down to the final two players listed in Xavier McKinney and Trevon Diggs. If any safety is drafted in Round 1, it’s expected to be McKinney. Delpit is just as talented, but McKinney has the slightly better tape, and thus likely has a slightly higher draft grade from most NFL teams.
Diggs is a talented cornerback with a first-round grade who may get squeezed out of Day 1 based on team preferences. This is the only prop with no plus money on either side, for good reason. In my next mock draft, all six of these players will go in the first round, with McKinney barely sneaking in at the end of the first. If you want action on this prop, the over is the slightly better value.
The pick: Over 5.5 (-102)
Total Clemson Players Drafted in the First Round: – 2.5 (o +225/u -310)
The candidates: Isaiah Simmons, Tee Higgins, A.J. Terrell
This is one of the more intriguing first-round school props on the board. Perhaps one of the top-three talents in the entire 2020 NFL Draft class, Isaiah Simmons is a lock. In fact, it would be a surprise if he was not drafted in the top 10.
Tee Higgins is a talented wide receiver who made the potentially ill-fated decision not to run at the 2020 NFL Combine, instead choosing to wait for his Pro Day (which did not happen because of COVID-19). He has good enough talent to still be drafted in the first round, especially with several receiver-needy teams having multiple first-round picks. This is a loaded draft class, but the particular talent and depth at wide receiver could cause Higgins to drop. With that said, he is a first-round talent who would be in the conversation to be the first wide receiver taken in most draft classes. It would be a mild surprise if he was not drafted on Day 1.
This prop should come down to A.J. Terrell. Although a supremely talented corner, he may have slightly less upside than the cornerbacks considered relative Day 1 locks. Terrell’s current draft position prop at FanDuel is listed at 33.5 with juice on the under (-122).
The value here is obviously on the over for value bettors, as +225 implies that Terrell has just a 30.8 percent chance to go in the first round. This number may be closer to 30 to 40 percent. For income bettors, the under is the smarter play. It is listed at -310 for a reason, as both Higgins and Terrell could potentially fall out of the first round. The lay should be just one unit for a partial unit return. There is a higher probability that the under hits, but there is a good enough chance that the over hits to avoid laying three units plus for a single unit return.
The pick: Under 2.5 (-310)
Total Ohio State Players Drafted in the First Round: – 2.5 (o +270/u -380)
The candidates: Chase Young, Jeffrey Okudah, J.K. Dobbins
The Ohio State University. Ohio State has two locks for the first round, so this prop is really “Will J.K. Dobbins be drafted in the first round?†Chase Young is the most talented player in the entire 2020 NFL Draft class. He is projected to go second overall if Washington keeps its pick. Jeffrey Okudah is the top cornerback in this draft class and a rare one worthy of a top-10, or even a top-five pick. He could go third overall if both Washington and the Detroit Lions keep their picks at second and third overall, respectively.
Dobbins remains in the first-round mix, but he is another player hurt by his decision to wait until his Pro Day (which was subsequently cancelled) to participate in the testing drills. There is only one running back projected to be drafted in the first round, and Swift is the current betting favorite at FanDuel (-210). Dobbins is listed at +750 to be the first running back selected. This suggests that the under is the smarter play for Ohio State despite the highest juice of any of these props. His draft position prop sits at 49.5.
This is the prop for both income and value bettors to chase. 3.8 units for one is a hefty price to pay, but the implied odds of -380 suggests a 79.2 percent chance that this prop goes under. This number is likely much closer to 90 or even 95 percent, which would mean that the odds should sit at -900 to -1500. Get your taste of your other favorite NFL Draft props, then drop a significant portion of your remaining roll on this one.
The pick: Under 2.5 (-380)
Total Georgia Players Drafted in the First Round: – 1.5 (o -176/u +138)
The candidates: Andrew Thomas, D’Andre Swift, Jake Fromm, Isaiah Wilson
The Georgia prop is highly intriguing. Left tackle Andrew Thomas is a lock to go in the first round. Arguably the highest floor pure tackle, he is in the mix to be the first offensive lineman off the board. He should go in the top 10, but his absolute floor appears to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 14th overall. Swift is widely regarded as one of the top two running backs in this draft class. Unlike Taylor and Dobbins, he does not have a draft position prop listed at FanDuel.
Two dark horses to sneak into the first round are Jake Fromm and Isaiah Wilson. Wilson is a right tackle who appears to be more highly regarded in some NFL circles than by draft analysts. He has the size and upside to play outside or inside and could be targeted if Josh Jones and Austin Jackson get drafted earlier than expected. A Day 2 talent, Fromm may sneak into the first round if a team drafting near the end of the first views him as a superior system fit to the other prospects still on the board. Fromm has flashed first-round upside throughout his career at Georgia, but he did not do enough to make himself a lock to be an NFL starter, and thus a Day 1 pick.
There appears to be value on both sides of this prop, which essentially comes down to Swift. You get -176 for yes and +138 for no. Swift at -210 to be the first running back off the board suggests he’ll go in the first round. It also implies a 67.7 percent chance that he will be the first running back drafted.
Projecting the picks, Miami remains the team most likely to draft a running back in the first round. Adding Taylor after signing Jordan Howard would be questionable in terms of complementary skill sets, as Taylor could be viewed (rightly or wrongly) as a rich man’s Howard with better hands. Swift, while also a power back, is more diverse in his skill set and has shown enough as a receiver to be Miami’s primary receiver out of the backfield.
Swift believers should lean on the over for this prop. I personally like Taylor better, but this is about projecting what NFL teams will do in the draft. Take the over as a one unit play.
The pick: Over 1.5 (-176)
Here are all of our 2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets >>
Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.