2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets: Henry Ruggs Draft Position
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The 2020 NFL Draft is just days away. For bettors on sports withdrawal, the three days of the NFL Draft will represent the high point of sports betting since the major sports leagues were suspended. BetMGM has a host of different NFL Draft props to choose from, with the draft position props being among the most intriguing. The lines and odds are in flux, as the props are starting to see more action with each passing day. Today we will be taking a look at one of the 2020 NFL Draft’s most exciting wide receivers in Henry Ruggs. He has a wide variety of outcomes, and his landing spot prop should make for some good suspense. Let’s dig in.
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The Odds
2020 NFL Draft – Henry Ruggs draft position
Over 17.5 (+125)
Under 17.5 (-149)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
The Player
Henry Ruggs (WR – Alabama)
Henry Ruggs is a verified speedster who ran a 4.28 40 time at the 2020 NFL Combine. He got lost in the shuffle on Alabama teams that housed four other first-round wide receivers in his tenure (Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, and Calvin Ridley), but still put enough on tape that when combined with his elite speed put him in the first-round mix. Widely regarded as a top three-to-five receiver in the 2020 NFL Draft class, Ruggs could be taken off the board as early as 11th overall.
Ruggs is one of the most divisive prospects in this wide receiver class due to his muted production at recruiting powerhouse Alabama. However, NFL scouts and general managers are well aware that the same concerns were bandied about regarding 2019 first-round pick Josh Jacobs, a running back who was forced to share the field with both Najee and Damien Harris. Ruggs will appeal to teams looking to add a speed element to their offense, but smart offensive play-callers will realize that Ruggs can do so much more than just run a straight line. A home run threat who also doubles as a red-zone weapon, the sky is truly the limit for Ruggs if he lands in a creative system.
The Teams
Instead of looking at each team picking in the top 17, and analyzing potential team fit, we will first eliminate the teams that will not be considering a first-round wide receiver. While every team could utilize someone with Ruggs’ elite speed and underrated skill set, only a few will bypass other needs to spend a first-round pick on a wide receiver. The first three teams we will eliminate from the discussion are the Cincinnati Bengals, the Miami Dolphins, and the Los Angeles Chargers. All three of those teams are expected to walk away from the 2020 NFL Draft with a first-round quarterback. The Carolina Panthers will not be drafting a speed wide receiver as they already have two burners in D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can also be ruled out due to the presence of the best wide receiver duo in the NFL in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Tampa Bay is in win-now mode and is much more likely to look to address needs in the secondary or their offensive line with their first-round pick.
Washington (2nd overall)
Washington needs wide receiver help but would need to trade down past seventh overall to seriously consider drafting a wide receiver instead of a defensive stud, or one of the 2020 NFL Draft’s top offensive linemen. If they keep the second overall pick or trade with the Miami Dolphins or the Los Angeles Chargers they will still be in a position to draft one of their top targets.
Detroit Lions (3rd overall)
The Detroit Lions do have a need at wide receiver but are expected to remain in a draft position to draft Chase Young, Jeffrey Okudah, Derrick Brown, or Isaiah Simmons even if they trade down. Detroit is likely to look to address the wide receiver position on day two or day three. The 2020 wide receiver class is deep enough for Detroit to still land an immediate starter in round five.
New York Giants (4th overall)
The New York Giants pick at 4th overall is available, but if Washington and the Detroit Lions both end up trading their first-round picks, New York may choose to stand pat and draft Chase Young. The Giants do need a number one receiver, but would likely be more interested in Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb if they were to shock the world and select a receiver at fourth overall.
Arizona Cardinals (8th overall)
The Arizona Cardinals are expected to draft the top offensive lineman on their board still available or to look to steal one of the 2020 NFL Draft’s elite defensive players who slip to them at eighth overall. There was always a chance that Kliff Kingsbury would lobby for and win in an attempt to add yet another impact wide receiver. There now appears to be some serious smoke regarding the possibility of the Cardinals adding a first-round wideout. Franchise quarterback Kyler Murray has told management that he wants a first-round wide receiver, but it is former Oklahoma teammate CeeDee Lamb and not Henry Ruggs. Ruggs will not be drafted by Arizona.
Jacksonville Jaguars (9th overall)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have so many other needs that drafting a first-round wide receiver in such a deep class at the position would be a fireable offense. Perhaps if someone slips to them at 20th overall they can take a harder look, but their needs on the offensive line and all over their defense trumps their need for a true number one receiver.
Cleveland Browns (10th overall)
Does adding a speed element at wide receiver make sense for the Cleveland Browns? Yes. Does it make sense for them to add a wideout at 10th overall when one or more of the draft’s top offensive linemen are still available? No. Henry Ruggs would be an exciting fit in this offense, but the Browns are drafting too early to seriously consider a wide receiver. Add in the fact that the Browns already have a considerable sum tied up in their pass catchers, and they will likely be in the market for the still talented, but cheaper, late-round additions.
New York Jets (11th overall)
This is where Henry Ruggs’ draft ceiling starts. The New York Jets, if they keep their pick, would be better off drafting an offensive lineman, an edge rusher, or even a cornerback, but this is the Jets we are talking about. New York is rumored to have interest in Henry Ruggs, but will also no doubt be interested in Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb. The Jets need a number one wide receiver, but protecting Sam Darnold should be their priority in the first round. New York has ‘met’ with all four of the 2020 NFL Draft’s top offensive linemen, and are expected to select one of them at 11th overall.
Las Vegas Raiders (12th overall)
Barring a mini slide by Isaiah Simmons, Derrick Brown, or Jeffrey Okudah, the Las Vegas Raiders are expected to draft a wide receiver at 12th overall. They appear to have their eyes trained on Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb, but Henry Ruggs will at least be discussed. Ruggs may become an option if still available at 19th overall, but Mike Mayock, unless he has fallen in love with Jordan Love, should opt for one of the 2020 NFL Draft’s top two receivers in Jeudy or Lamb.
San Francisco 49ers (13th overall)
Now, this is where things get interesting. The 49ers would likely jump at the chance to draft Derrick Brown or Javon Kinlaw if still available here, but they have been heavily linked to a wide receiver at 13th overall. There is a possibility that both Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb are off the board at this point, making it fair to wonder if Henry Ruggs is indeed their number three receiver in this draft class. They witnessed first hand in the Super Bowl how much elite speed can affect a game, and may want to add the explosive Ruggs to their cachet of weapons.
Denver Broncos (15th overall)
As much fun as you want to poke at Denver for their handling of their quarterback situations in John Elway’s tenure, no one can deny that they have been strong when targeting other positions. The Broncos’ biggest need is at cornerback, but there is enough depth in this class that they may bypass one to net Drew Lock the type of speed receiver who helped open things up for him at Missouri. Jeudy and Lamb will, of course, be considered here if still available, but Ruggs could very well be the pick if both are already off the board. Ruggs would be a terrific 1b to Courtland Sutton and would allow DaeSean Hamilton another year to prove he deserves to be a starter in three-wide sets. It will be interesting to see what position the Broncos target here, but one thing is for sure, Henry Ruggs is in play.
Atlanta Falcons (16th overall)
Drafting Henry Ruggs seems like a very on-brand type of move for the Atlanta Falcons. With that being said, they have much larger needs on the defensive line and at cornerback. It would be a major surprise if the Falcons chose to reunite former Alabama teammates Calvin Ridley and Henry Ruggs. They will likely look to spend their day one and two capital filling more pressing needs, before scouring day three for help at wide receiver.
Dallas Cowboys (17th overall)
If the Dallas Cowboys do not trade up to select Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb, there is a high probability that this will be Henry Ruggs’ landing spot if he is still available. Cornerback is a much more pressing need, as is the center position, but much like wide receiver, value can be found at those positions on day two. The Cowboys adding Ruggs here would not be a surprise, but it would probably be in the team’s best interests to prioritize actual needs before adding another potential elite talent to a wide receiver room that already boasts Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup.
Conclusion
There are no fewer than five legitimate potential landing spots for Henry Ruggs in the first 17 picks. He should be considered a lock to be a first-round pick, but the question for this draft position prop is whether or not he will last to pick 18. The juice on this prop suggests that the under is the smarter play, and we concur. While he may be the third receiver off the board in the first round, there are enough teams with a strong need and desire to upgrade their wide receiver corps to give the under perceived value even at its current line of -149. -149 implies a 59.8 percent chance that Ruggs is drafted prior to pick 18. The probability seems about right, suggesting that there is potential value on both sides of this prop. The -149 at BetMGM remains the smarter play and is a suggested one unit lay.
The pick: Under 17.5 (-149)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.