2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets: Jedrick Wills Draft Position

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The 2020 NFL Draft is just days away, and that means action is starting to pour in on the NFL Draft props. BetMGM has a wide variety of props to choose from, including the always-intriguing draft position props. Today, we will be taking a look at the Jedrick Wills draft position prop. The Wills prop appears to have the most income bettor value of any of the offensive linemen props by virtue of him being the most versatile of the top talents at his position. Even teams that do not necessarily need an offensive tackle will still be interested in Wills due to his All-Pro upside were he to kick inside to guard. This will be an interesting prop to examine. Let’s dig in.

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The Odds

2020 NFL Draft – Jedrick Wills draft position
Over 9.5 (+125)
Under 9.5 (-149)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM

The Player

Jedrick Wills (OL – Alabama)
Arguably the most talented offensive lineman in the 2020 NFL Draft class, Jedrick Wills has the tape and talent to suggest that a Pro Bowl future. He is the most versatile of the top offensive linemen prospects, and he has All-Pro upside if he were to shift inside to guard. Wills is a mauler in the run game who, much like the other top offensive linemen in this class, has some pass-protection technique issues to clean up. Wills played right tackle for Alabama this last season, which means he was the blindside protector for left-handed quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

Wills could very well be the first offensive lineman off the board in the 2020 NFL Draft. He has the ability to play left tackle, right tackle, as well as both guard positions, versatility that should increase his appeal to prospective teams. He has great hands at the point of attack, and he flashes rare lateral movement skills for a man of his size. Wills arguably possesses the best combination of upside and floor of any of the offensive linemen in this class.

The Teams

Before examining specific team fits. and the possibility of Jedrick Wills being drafted to that particular team, we should eliminate the teams that will be drafting a quarterback. These three teams are believed to be the Cincinnati Bengals, the Miami Dolphins, and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Bengals are expected to select Joe Burrow at first overall, as they have recently made it clear that they feel comfortable with the prospect of tapping the Ohio native as their franchise quarterback. The Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins are expected to walk away from the draft with franchise signal-callers in Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert. As such, they will also be absent from further discussion.

Washington (2nd overall)
With Trent Williams remaining steadfast in his desire to be shipped out of town, Washington has a glaring need for a left tackle. One of the teams most likely to trade down, they may move to a position where Jedrick Wills becomes a more realistic consideration. If Washington keeps their pick at second overall, they are widely expected to select defensive end Chase Young. However, Washington’s most likely trade partners are the Miami Dolphins who currently hold the fifth overall pick and the Los Angeles Chargers who hold the sixth overall pick. If they move back to one of those spots, they will still likely target a defensive player like Chase Young, Derrick Brown, Isaiah Simmons, or Jeffrey Okudah. 

Detroit Lions (3rd overall)
If the Detroit Lions hold onto their first-round pick at third overall, they are expected to target Chase Young (if Washington trades their pick to a quarterback-needy team), Jeffrey Okudah, or Derrick Brown. Isaiah Simmons will also be a consideration. Even if the Lions swapped picks with the Dolphins or Chargers, they would likely still be targeting a defensive player. Detroit will likely need to trade down to seventh overall or further to make an offensive lineman a serious consideration.

New York Giants (4th overall)
The New York Giants at fourth overall is where the first offensive lineman may come off the board. New York has a need for a left tackle, as Nate Solder’s play in pass protection took a step back last season. Moving him to the right side while adding a long-term answer to protect Daniel Jones’ blindside may be in the Giants’ best interest. With that said, the Giants may be drawn to one of the 2020 NFL Draft’s top defensive talents. General manager Dave Gettleman has never drafted an offensive lineman with a first-round pick, and he may be too tempted by players like Chase Young, Isaiah Simmons, Derrick Brown, and Jeffrey Okudah to seriously consider passing on one or all of them to fill an obvious position of need. 

Carolina Panthers (7th overall)
The Carolina Panthers need a true answer at the left tackle position. They drafted Greg Little in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, but he still has some technique and effort issues of his own to iron out. Little may ultimately prove to be a better fit at guard or right tackle, putting Wills in play. Carolina traded star guard Trai Turner for Russell Okung earlier this offseason, a move that may rule them out of considering tackle help in the first round. That said, Little can move inside as mentioned above, or Wills, the most versatile of the offensive linemen in this class, can start his career at right guard before moving to the outside when Okung retires. Carolina is expected to seriously consider Isaiah Simmons as a Luke Kuechly “replacement,” and they should also heavily consider Derrick Brown and Jeffrey Okudah if either player is still on the board. 

Arizona Cardinals (8th overall)
If Jedrick Wills is still on the board at eighth overall, this is where his positional versatility may really come into play. The Cardinals have a need on the offensive line, but they may feel set at left tackle after shelling out $45 million over three years to former first-round pick D.J. Humphries. Humphries had a surprisingly strong season under first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury and was rewarded handsomely for it. This may eliminate the more traditional left tackles in Andrew Thomas and Mekhi Becton, and it could put Wills in play as a right tackle or guard option. The Cardinals are also expected to consider any top defensive player who may slip to eighth overall, and they could possibly take an elite wide receiver. That said, Wills has a strong chance of being drafted here if Brown, Simmons, and Okudah are off the board.

Jacksonville Jaguars (9th overall)
The Jacksonville Jaguars will think long and hard about drafting Jedrick Wills. Conventional wisdom suggests that the Jaguars should use both of their first-round picks to help rebuild the decimated carcass of what was once the most intimidating defense in the entire National Football League. Edge rusher and corner are bigger needs, but there will still be value at both positions on day two, and possibly into the fourth round. Jedrick Wills’ versatility figures to be very appealing to Jacksonville. Ideally, they would start Wills at left tackle and move current left tackle Cam Robinson to right guard. If Wills proves he is not ready for the outside, he could start at guard for years to come. Adding Wills is the type of move that could allow them to plug two holes at once. It would be a surprise if Wills lasts past ninth overall.

Conclusion

It would be a surprise if Jedrick Wills was still available at 10th overall. Viewed by many as the best offensive lineman in the 2020 NFL Draft, Wills appeals to teams looking for a left tackle, a right tackle, or a guard. His positional versatility could result in making him the first offensive lineman drafted, and should make for a ‘sweat’ free click on the under 9.5 at BetMGM. The under already has heavy juice at -149, as savvy bettors have identified this line as one of the best on the board.

While the Andrew Thomas prop offers more value draft position-wise due to his being listed at 10.5, Wills has a higher chance of being drafted well before his draft position prop cutoff of 9.5 (while Thomas may actually be drafted 10th overall when his prop is 10.5). The -149 implies a 59.8 percent chance that Wills is drafted before 10th overall. This number is likely closer to 65 to 75 percent, percentages that would equate to -186 to -300 respectively. The under is a potential multi-unit play here. Lock it in at BetMGM as soon as possible, as the juice on this prop is destined to rise. 

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.